Will ‘Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by at least 20%?’ be determined tomorrow, with two weeks to spare?

Basic

Ṁ3760

resolved May 26

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if the result of

/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be

is mathematically determined by noon ET tomorrow, May 26 (almost two weeks before it closes). That means that the result would be guaranteed to be NO (can't guarantee YES by then), regardless of what the probability of that market's underlying is after that.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Rationalussy

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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It’s now impossible for YES in the good/bad market to force a win by at least 20% even if the average was 100% for the remaining time. It was already impossible for NO even before this market’s creation. This just happened a minute ago, at 7:48:37 am Eastern.

I will wait for confirmation from @JosephNoonan or anyone else before resolving YES (I’ve traded a single share there to facilitate the script computation).

@deagol I can confirm it is no longer possible.

It's on track to happen in about 8 hours. It could in theory be manipulated but would have to average around 78% for that.

predictedYES

@JosephNoonan 🤫

predictedYES

@JosephNoonan prop it at 85% for only a few hours doesn’t sound that hard

predictedYES

.856 now every minute counts

predictedYES

ah no they taking it down wrong way lol

90% till close or 90min no change

2meta4me

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