Will ‘Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by at least 20%?’ be determined tomorrow, with two weeks to spare?

5

resolved May 26

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if the result of

/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be

is mathematically determined by noon ET tomorrow, May 26 (almost two weeks before it closes). That means that the result would be guaranteed to be NO (can't guarantee YES by then), regardless of what the probability of that market's underlying is after that.

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Daniel Tello	Ṁ41
2	Fedor	Ṁ29
3	Joseph Noonan	Ṁ6
4	Noya	Ṁ3
5	GPT-PBot	Ṁ1

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Daniel Tellobought Ṁ496 of YES

It’s now impossible for YES in the good/bad market to force a win by at least 20% even if the average was 100% for the remaining time. It was already impossible for NO even before this market’s creation. This just happened a minute ago, at 7:48:37 am Eastern.

I will wait for confirmation from @JosephNoonan or anyone else before resolving YES (I’ve traded a single share there to facilitate the script computation).

Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@deagol I can confirm it is no longer possible.

Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ10 of YES

It's on track to happen in about 8 hours. It could in theory be manipulated but would have to average around 78% for that.

Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 74%

@JosephNoonan 🤫

Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 91%

@JosephNoonan prop it at 85% for only a few hours doesn’t sound that hard

Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 91%

.856 now every minute counts

Daniel Tellopredicted YES at 91%

ah no they taking it down wrong way lol

Daniel Tellobought Ṁ95 of YES(edited)

90% till close or 90min no change

2meta4me

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