Will ‘Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by at least 20%?’ be determined tomorrow, with two weeks to spare?
5
74
110
resolved May 26
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the result of

/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be

is mathematically determined by noon ET tomorrow, May 26 (almost two weeks before it closes). That means that the result would be guaranteed to be NO (can't guarantee YES by then), regardless of what the probability of that market's underlying is after that.

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bought Ṁ496 of YES

It’s now impossible for YES in the good/bad market to force a win by at least 20% even if the average was 100% for the remaining time. It was already impossible for NO even before this market’s creation. This just happened a minute ago, at 7:48:37 am Eastern.

I will wait for confirmation from @JosephNoonan or anyone else before resolving YES (I’ve traded a single share there to facilitate the script computation).

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@deagol I can confirm it is no longer possible.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

It's on track to happen in about 8 hours. It could in theory be manipulated but would have to average around 78% for that.

predicted YES
predicted YES

@JosephNoonan prop it at 85% for only a few hours doesn’t sound that hard

predicted YES

.856 now every minute counts

predicted YES

ah no they taking it down wrong way lol

bought Ṁ95 of YES

90% till close or 90min no change

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