Will the final average of the rounded percentages in the linked market be ≥70% or ≤30%?
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ352 | |
| 2 | Ṁ68 | |
| 3 | Ṁ26 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 |
It's currently impossible for the average to be below 30%, and it would have to average more than 99.27% over the remaining time for the average to be above 70%. This market is therefore virtually certain to resolve NO, and it will probably happen tomorrow (even if Daniel Tello's market below resolves NO, it will still likely be certain by tomorrow, since that market is only about what happens before noon ET).
Now, the remaining probability would have to be below about 10.86%, or above 88.71%. The latter case sounds pretty unlikely, but the former seems feasible. It's currently at 16%, but, assuming no one makes a play for a YES resolution, it will probably keep getting lower over time.
Seems like the probability of this should be lower than the probability of the original market. It's very unlikely that this market resolves YES if the OG one resolves NO, since Team YES already has a large lead (current average is 63.69%), so Team NO would have to eliminate that lead, and then bring it 20 points further down. Currently, the future average required to do that is 14.54%.
On the other hand, even if the OG resolves YES, this could still end up resolving NO. Team YES would only need to keep the future average at 72.90% for this to resolve YES, but I could easily see a scenario where Team YES wins, but in a much narrower victory.
@JosephNoonan Like a twisted version of the famous Hemingway quote, I think these things tend to collapse in two ways: suddenly, and then gradually. Seems to me the ‘suddenly’ just happened. ‘Am I pretty’ never looked back with more than a week left. But of course you can never be sure with these mercurial whales and sharks doing backroom deals and loans and head-fakes and who knows what new trick up their sleeves.
@deagol Depends on what you consider "suddenly". It was predictable enough that I knew to sell all my YES shares before it happened, and I didn't have any inside information on when the whales were coming.
@JosephNoonan yeah, I was lucky to find myself with a ton of cheap NOs after that trader bailed, and then pissed it all away for peanuts (in fact I think bailing you out). I was just happy to unload them at a small profit but would’ve been sweet to sell those at 38% instead of 83%. You’re welcome. ;)
@deagol I don't think you really bailed me out, Catnee had a huge limit order at 80%
@JosephNoonan right but you took mine first at 81, 83 and 85, 1500 shares in total. It’s now on page 5 of the trades tab.
@deagol Well, yeah, you allowed me to get some extra profit compared to what I would have gotten from Catnee's limit order. I just meant that I wouldn't have been doomed even if you hadn't sold those shares.
The haters don't stand a chance. It will be a blowjob in favor of team yes. A landslide far bigger than the other markets' results. Truly a travesty it would be if it were not.
