According to my calculations it’s now impossible for a flip to happen in May even if the underlying’s probability were kept at zero for the remainder of the month (the average would then be 50.0123%). I’ll wait about an hour for any confirmation or rebuttal before resolving NO.

@jack could make even more profit by betting YES on this and then pushing the original market back below 50%.

@JosephNoonan I think this has less than one hour left at the current 72% probability of the underlying to become mathematically impossible. Even if the probability tanks drastically it wouldn’t make much of a difference. Will you confirm so I can resolve? Thanks!

done dumping this, it can of course flip if @jack or another whale decides it suits them