Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" flip by tomorrow?
11
358
210
resolved May 21
Resolved
NO

Will the time-weighted average of the rounded percentages in the embedded market be <50% at any moment between this market's creation and midnight ET May 21? Average as of this market's creation ~51.7%.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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#NameTotal profit
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bought Ṁ1 of NO

Resolving NO as the lowest I see was 50.14446% today just before @jack bought it to 59% at 4:22:17 PM, and don’t think any missing trades will change that. Any objections?

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan @AlexbGoode can any of you confirm it never dipped?

predicted NO

ok moving on…

predicted NO

@deagol Like I said before, it got to ~50.1% before going back up, so you were correct that it never went below 50. I guess it's technically possible that the bug affected it, but the average was pretty stable for the last few days until the flip, so even if your calculations have the probability slightly off at a few times, I don't think the effect is large enough to affect the result.

sold Ṁ0 of YES

What if due to the bug I actually saw the average dipping below 50%, and resolve YES? 😈

bought Ṁ0 of NO

it seems they fixed the bug but my losses here somewhat due to my trading last night based on wrong info given by the interface

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Positions tab still messed up:

This is just wrong, how am I supposed to make informed trades? Do I go by the 100 on YES that I see in my summary? Or do I offset the two YES/NO positions giving me a net 453 NO? Don’t I get Ṁ327 redeemed in that case, offsetting that Ṁ417 loss?

If someone from manifold team (@Austin @SG @Sinclair not sure what’s the proper channel for this) can comment here says this is fine, nothing new it’s been having these issues for a while, I should have expected and should be able to figure it out, then I’ll happily eat my loss (whatever it is, I can’t really tell). Otherwise I think N/A has a strong case (but of course I’m biased).

predicted YES

what info should I rely on? e.g. say I wanted off this market, not have this 763 ghost value as an albatros position in my portfolio, what should I do? Sell the 100 YES? On the other hand, what’s going to happen when the missing sell orders eventually migrate and the EV presumably matches reality? how do I minimize whatever further impact that event might have?

predicted NO

@deagol Hmm this bug looks bad - James said in discord they are working on it.

I'm not sure, but I would expct the amount shown on the market page "You'll get ... on YES/NO" to be more reliable than the positions tab.

predicted YES

@jack that’s also what I’m expecting but my confidence in the UI is waning by the minute

predicted YES

should I resolve this broken thing N/A? seeing as there’s an acknowledged bug, some database replication of sell orders which affected me. @jack I think you getting most profit here, I could compensate? any other suggestions?

@deagol this doesn't effect the resolution does it? Just close the market and wait until the bug has been fixed

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode it affected trading (at least mine), given the information being displayed about trades, positions, and even price was wrong

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode also I can’t be sure if the average as I will compute it (based on the chart displayed) matches traders expectations of it (based on the price displayed)

sold Ṁ185 of NO

@deagol was the displayed price wrong too? It looked to me like the positions tab has some issue and the trade history has had issues showing recent trades for a long time, that's not new. But those wouldn't affect the price display.

sold Ṁ8 of YES

@jack the trade history alone is essential to me, not knowing what caused the price change, not seeing sell orders reflected, seemed like a ghost was moving the price. And the chart didn’t match the price.

I sold but the market didn’t reflect it, so I sold again, way more than I intended (thinking it didn’t go through), then the bot broke as well, which did update the market (still not showing my sells) then I bought back. Then I did it all again trying to identify the issue. It’s fine I’ll eat my loss but I thought there might be a case for N/A (with some compensation to you) for their acknowledged bug breaking the market.

sold Ṁ3 of YES

@jack I never had issues with the trade history not updating, nothing that a page/cache refresh wouldn’t fix. This time it never showed those trades, not on hard refresh, and not after several hours. This never happened to me before.

predicted NO

@deagol Hmm, I see, that's worse than I realized. I suggest we wait for the dust to settle on the bugfix so we can see what transactions actually went down, and then figure it out.

predicted NO

It's also possible Manifold may need to take a broader corrective action since this seems to have had a broad impact.

predicted YES

@jack Good to know they’ve now realized this is a big one. I notified some team members 17h ago, but seemed to me they were all asleep.

Edit: actually I reported on discord 21h ago (I think that's Pacific time though I'm at ET)

predicted YES

It will flip in about three hours

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan wattabout now?

sold Ṁ1 of YES

@deagol Dang, it got all the way down to 50.1% before flipping. I should have known that Jack would time things to manipulate this market.

@deagol what did you do to the bot?

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode no idea what’s going on, sell trades aren’t showing, I see myself with double entries holding both yes and no shares and my profits are a mess. You notice anything weird when selling or is it just me?

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@deagol yeah some things are definitely broken/not updating. My last trades don't show up and are not in the trading history

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode I saw you bought, the price went from 89% to 90%. Then the price dipped back to 89% but no activity, so I guess you sold. The chart didn’t reflect the dip, which impacts my ability to calculate the average.

@deagol exactly I bought and sold as you said. I now also notice inconsistencies on other markets