Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" flip in May?
15
208
290
resolved May 29
Resolved
NO

Will the time-weighted average of the rounded percentages in the embedded market be <50% at any moment between this market's creation and midnight ET June 1st? Average as of this market's creation ~64.1%.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ887
2Ṁ127
3Ṁ17
4Ṁ3
Sort by:
predicted NO

According to my calculations it’s now impossible for a flip to happen in May even if the underlying’s probability were kept at zero for the remainder of the month (the average would then be 50.0123%). I’ll wait about an hour for any confirmation or rebuttal before resolving NO.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@jack could make even more profit by betting YES on this and then pushing the original market back below 50%.

bought Ṁ336 of NO

@JosephNoonan I think this has less than one hour left at the current 72% probability of the underlying to become mathematically impossible. Even if the probability tanks drastically it wouldn’t make much of a difference. Will you confirm so I can resolve? Thanks!

bought Ṁ0 of NO

done dumping this, it can of course flip if @jack or another whale decides it suits them

bought Ṁ22 of YES