Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $200 before $180? (2nd attempt)
Mar 10

Last price: 2024-Feb-23 $182.52

(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)

Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session after market creation (2023-Nov-20) during which the price stays above $200 (YES) or below $180 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:

Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $200

Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $180

Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $190 then quoted prices next day would be $95 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)

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Extended two weeks due to lower volatility.

Derivative market about when this market will resolve!

@traders another week on The Long And Winding Road...

great job all, keep it up!

@deagol "prediction markets provide value" 😂

@trixwit it couldn’t resolve today, known from the very open. Needs all day below 180 or over 200 to resolve.

@deagol yeah i understand

@deagol I in all honesty glanced at this image in my phone and though its just a screenshot from a trading termimal with apple and some sort of trading indicator enabled...

opened aṀ75 YES at 35% order

@brake @mint just fyi: It seems like your bot is quite easy to exploit. (I've done these type of trades a few times now.) I am not 100% certain, maybe it's just luck.

predicts NO

@Lion yeah I monitor the bot pretty closely at this stage so I've noticed, but thanks for the heads up. There will always be the potential for exploit when a bot trades with people instead of against them. I previously had more strict rules to make this harder but I loosened them recently and the bot has been making more trades and performing a lot better, so idk. I'll keep refining it further and can always create a manual block list

@mint yeah, that's why Jaguar is running with a max amount of 10 Mana. I hope nobody tries to exploit him for that. It is a pretty fine line.

sold Ṁ0 of YES

Opened within range so extends another week.

@traders Extends yet again. At >80 days, this has been the longest-lasting of these "fully break" $20 range AAPL markets.


The aftermarket right now 🤣

predicts YES

@Lion You should see Meta 😂

predicts YES

@SirCryptomind It's so messed up.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Lion Earnings and guidance. Meta is giving out a $0.5 dividend and had blow-out earnings.

predicts YES

@riverwalk3 let's just say I think aftermarkets are inaccurate if you don't want to call it messed up. (high volatility, low volume) but we'll see tomorrow

predicts YES

No one selling right now? 🤣

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@Lion Idk how much of a skew there should be - if we assume a simple Brownian motion then it should be at around 18% right now. However, there is much more volatility in downside moves, so this increases the odds of hitting the higher target ($200) first relative to this. Idk what the fair price would be.

predicts YES

@riverwalk3 this market isn't about hitting, it has to stay there for a whole trading day. I think with the currently reported numbers, it's very unlikely that either will happen as a direct result of this call.

To put up a fair price we have stock exchanges.

predicts YES

and maybe I'll be proofed wrong 🤣

I'm so terrible at intraday forecasting. Way to chilled for it.

predicts YES

@traders Extended another week. PSA reminder of earnings report after Thursday market close, and Friday’s Vision Pro launch.