I see. Gosh I worded that very poorly indeed. My bad, thanks for pointing it out. I had intended to determine resolution at the end of the year based on his status at that time. Did most people interpret it that way? @traders
I had interpreted it as continuous custody (e.g
should resolve no now) but I recognize the ambiguity and have sold my position now.
From my side:
As of the 'No' bets at ~50-30% I wasn't explicitly thinking about bonds/restrictions or continuousness. I was betting against him being stuck in prison. It doesn't look like he's stuck in prison atm from my perspective, but the risk of getting stuck in prison remains - the situation I wasn't considering. On the other hand, IMO the risk is still small.
As of the 'No' bet at ~20% I realised that the question sounds as if it could resolve to 'No' already.