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Does this resolve to No? Pavel Durov is no longer in custody (being out on bond seems to be different to being in custody) and the question is about him 'still' being in custody.

I see. Gosh I worded that very poorly indeed. My bad, thanks for pointing it out. I had intended to determine resolution at the end of the year based on his status at that time. Did most people interpret it that way? @traders

Yes

I think it depends. If he gets put in custody again due to some new charges, it should not be counted as him "still" being in custody. But if the judicial supervision that is put on him right now decides that he should be arrested again, it may count.

I think the fact that he doesn’t have freedom of movement is really no different than being in custody for someone of his means. I really didn’t think about this question as hard as I should have…

I had interpreted it as continuous custody (e.g

should resolve no now) but I recognize the ambiguity and have sold my position now.

From my side:

As of the 'No' bets at ~50-30% I wasn't explicitly thinking about bonds/restrictions or continuousness. I was betting against him being stuck in prison. It doesn't look like he's stuck in prison atm from my perspective, but the risk of getting stuck in prison remains - the situation I wasn't considering. On the other hand, IMO the risk is still small.

As of the 'No' bet at ~20% I realised that the question sounds as if it could resolve to 'No' already.

I read the question to be whether his then custody would end before the end of 2024 and bet no believing it highly unlikely he would be held more than several days. To me, the word "still" implies continuous custody. I would consider someone on supervised release to no longer be in custody.

He was released from custody today. I would say this resolves to no

I agree it resolves NO.