Will Bashar Al-Assad remain in power throughout 2025?
82
1kṀ160k
resolved Dec 8
Resolved
NO

Background

Bashar al-Assad has been the President of Syria since 2000 and has maintained power through a devastating civil war that began in 2011. He currently controls most of Syria's territory with strong military and political backing from Russia and Iran. Recent developments include Syria's readmission to the Arab League and growing regional normalization of relations with the Assad regime.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Bashar al-Assad is alive and remains the President of Syria through December 31, 2025. The market will resolve NO if:

  • Assad dies from any cause before December 31, 2025

  • Assad is removed from power through any means (military coup, revolution, voluntary resignation, etc.)

  • Assad no longer exercises de facto control over the Syrian government

Considerations

  • While Assad faces ongoing challenges including regional instability and economic crisis, he has consolidated his military position with support from key allies

  • The U.S. Biden administration has shown limited engagement in Syria, reducing external pressure for regime change

  • Recent regional diplomatic developments, including normalization with Turkey and other Arab states, have strengthened Assad's position

  • Previous predictions of Assad's fall have consistently proven wrong since the start of the Syrian Civil War

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