Who will win most of the votes on the mayoral elections in Istanbul, Turkey, 31-March-2024?
16
181
723
resolved Apr 3
Resolved
YES
Ekrem İmamoğlu (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi)
Resolved
NO
Murat Kurum (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi)
Resolved
NO
Meral Danış Beştaş (Halkların Eşitlik ve Demokrasi Partisi)
Resolved
NO
Mehmet Satuk Buğra Kavuncu (İYİ Parti)
Resolved
NO
Invalid/blank votes

After the 2024 general elections in Turkey, where the governing party secured its position for the next four years in a narrow vote, the eyes are set on the next political clash, the local elections in March 2024. Lots of stakes are put over the governance of Istanbul, one of the largest cities on our planet and the most sizeable focal point of Turkey, which was governed by a mayor representing the parliamentary opposition. The political offer is diverse, with over 20 confirmed candidates.

https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_T%C3%BCrkiye_yerel_se%C3%A7imleri
We are interested in the ranks of the candidates by votes given, on the voting held on 31st of March. It resolves to the candidate that gets the highest number of votes on that particular election. It might take few additional days before the official result is declared, but it should be resolved by 3rd of April 2024.
Results are declared here
https://www.ysk.gov.tr/

To avoid ambiguity, we are interested only in which candidate comes first on that election day. There is still possibility that despite having someone with most number of votes, that it won't be sufficient to become a mayor, as a second vote (only between the two first candidates) could be organized, and that is beyond the scope of this question. The options listed are not exhaustive - there are over 20 candidates. Here we list only 5 options, as it is reasonable to expect that only up to 4 candidates (and blank votes) can obtain more than 100,000 ( past results https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/. Last elections were won with over 4 milion votes for the winning side. If someone provides rationale (in the comments section), additional candidate may be put on the list.

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Hi to all, there were 5 candidates that managed to go above 100,00, the number of invalid votes tripled, and the previous mayor candidate obtained 51.2%.... Because there is a deadline for complaints, ill leave day or two, but the difference between the first and the second candidate is subtanstial and eventual revote wont change the result. It will be roslved to yes for Immamoglu, while the other options will be resolved to no, i just want the link to be announced before resolving who's with most number of voters, without any chance for dispute ...

I'm confused by this market. Is it about who wins the election? If so that can only be one person.

The reference to 100,000 votes makes no sense.

@MaybeNotDepends hi, the 100,000 is just a threshold, on the last elections 2020 there were 3 candidates that passed that number. If you want another candidate to be placed here, you can suggest and ill add them (there are over 20). That is why the most popular options are listed. We are betting on who will get the first place, or who wont get the first place.

@d_c_ I think you created the market with the wrong format. The options should not be able to add to > 100%.

sold Ṁ0 Murat Kurum (Adalet ... YES

@MaybeNotDepends you can choose different formats depending on the question; for instance, here you have 5 binary options (outcomes)