Will Joe Biden drop out of the 2024 Presidential Election?
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100kṀ1.3mresolved Jul 21
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".
If Joe Biden does not drop out or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 Presidential Election by 12:01 AM ET on November 5, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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All indications are at this point that he will not drop out-- his inner circle seems to have completely absolved itself of it's duty to the country not to encourage a senile late-stage dementia patient to run for president. Unfortunate. It's a slap in the face to the electorate to be honest.
I could be wrong if his health declines much more in the next three months but dementia is characterised by a slow decline so I put this at about ~10-15%, given it seems he's lost most of his fluid IQ already, there's not much further to go.