Will the margin of victory in the Georgia runoff be 2.5% or greater?

US Politics•Politics•Polymarket•US 2022 Elections•2022 Georgia Runoffs•US 2022 Midterms

319

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resolved Dec 7

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "YES" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 2.5% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO".

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21 Comments

67 Holders

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I have resolved this market using my admin powers to expedite midterms tournament results.

predicted YES

@SG thank you brother

@SG Thanks!

predicted YES

This can resolve YES.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

For what it’s worth, the linked polymarket is very sure that this is YES (96% sure). Also, currently Warnock is 2.6 points ahead. Obviously neither are good reasons to resolve, but good news for YES predictors like me!

bought Ṁ15 of NO

goddamnit I was about to sell 😭😭😭

predicted YES

Current NYTimes projected margin

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Warnock 1.9-2.1% seems right.

D voteshare in Fulton, Gwinnett, DeKalb, and Cobb still looks high compared to historical norms, expecting them to come back down as Eday vote in those counties comes out.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Current margin is .3 with 13% remaining btw : /

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@Cole all the votes remaining is in DeKalb and Fulton..

bought Ṁ10 of NO

The needle betrayed me, I went heavy on no when it was at like +1%...

bought Ṁ7 of YES

the NYT needle is predicting a 3 percent warnock win...

bought Ṁ50 of NO

2.5% is a lot. I'm thinking it'll be within 51.25/48.75.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Would you want to make 2 spin-off markets of this: one which asks about a 3.5% margin and one that asks about a 5% margin? If not, would you mind if I made them myself?

I for one think that this midterm will heavily lean towards Warnock (because Trump who has endorsed Walker will drive Democrats to vote, and Walker doesn’t have Kemp to bring up Republican turnout) and am curious what the markets think.

@JoshuaB Done and done! See below.

In the future, don't ask for permission, just make 'em yourself! That's what Manifold's all about.

@kolotom99 oh sorry, didn't see your description

bought Ṁ25 of YES

They only have to get 51.25% for this to happen. I think Warnock will likely do that. Walker does not have the benefit of sharing the ballot with Kemp this time so GOP turnout will lag.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

What's up with the dislocation between this market and its Polymarket clone? Are people hedging?

@cos I also wonder, check this one and its Poly version

Will the margin of victory in the Georgia runoff be 2.5% or greater?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition