Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the official "Yes" vote share for California Proposition 40 in the November 2026 general election is strictly greater than 52.00% (i.e., > 52.00% of all valid votes cast on the measure). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined using the official Statement of Vote certified by the California Secretary of State. If official certified results are delayed, credible consensus reporting from major news outlets (such as the Associated Press) projecting the final certified share may be used if the outcome relative to the 52.00% threshold is beyond mathematical doubt.

If election percentages are not published, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

Proposition 40 (the "California Billionaire Tax Act") was an initiative on the California statewide ballot in the November 3, 2026 election. Sponsored primarily by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, the measure proposed a one-time 5% wealth excise tax on individuals and qualifying trusts with worldwide net worth exceeding $1 billion residing in California. Revenue was designated primarily to backfill public healthcare funding (including Medi-Cal), as well as K-14 education and food assistance programs. Opponents, heavily funded by tech and finance executives, argued the retroactive net-worth levy would drive capital and high earners out of the state.