How many real-world events in 2023 will resolve a Manifold market with a 99%+ reversal? (full year inclusive)
Mini
10
1.0k
resolved Jun 1
15%15%Other
15%15%
7
14%14%
8
11%11%
6
11%11%
9
10%10%
5
9%9%
10
6%6%
4
4%4%
2
4%4%
1
3%3%
3

One of these has already been found.

1%->YES and 99%->NO both count.

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if anybody wants to research and count, feel free to reverse my resolution. this is ancient, tedious, and prone to error, so I'm resolving prob

There will probably be quite a lot of sporting ones where people were betting in play as one team took an advantage but then lost the match.

Here's an example where I managed to bet on NO when the market was trading at 99.0%:

@SimonGrayson Also, how long does it have to be trading at that level for? Someone briefly bet my market on whether Prigozhin will be confirmed dead within the week down to 1%. But that seems more like an odd bet than a 99% swing (if it ends up resolving to YES)!

@SimonGrayson Thank you for your questions. A brief spike is not a reversal. This market intends to count genuine surprises.

Inspired by Mario Party.

I'll split out higher counts from Other when it makes sense to me to do so.

@cloudprism So if someone bet's on "Other" now it means >7, but in the future it might mean >10, or >20 if it makes sense to you?

@StefanHolstein Yeah, pretty much. I wasn't originally expecting much on Other at all, given that the original market was only at around 20% that this would happen at all. I don't want to split out 100 different numbers unless it really actually comes down to that. The way "Other" works is something like when a new answer is added, you get shares in the amount you had in Other as shares in that new answer.

@cloudprism Interesting. I didn't know about the split of shares. This uncertainty still makes me reluctant to bet, because the split of shares into the new options might not reflect what I'm thinking.

You could split others in ">=8 and <12", ">=12 and <20", ">=20 (will not change)".

@StefanHolstein I'm trying to find the exact "peak", marble jar estimation style

@cloudprism It looks like I misunderstood how the split would work. There doesn't seem to be a disadvantage for me, even if you split up Other after I bet on it.

@StefanHolstein I'm curious what your reasoning is that it would be so high?

@cloudprism Sports. Like @SimonGrayson said above. I'm not sayin it's definitely more than 10. But 20% seems low. I wouldn't be surprised if someone would run the database, it's already been 5 or more this year.

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