Will the project "National Student Forecasting Tournament" receive any funding from the Clearer Thinking Regranting program run by ClearerThinking.org?

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Below, you can find some selected quotes from the public copy of the application. The text beneath each heading was written by the applicant. Alternatively, you can click here to see the entire public portion of their application.

Why the applicant thinks we should fund this project

The Alliance’s National Student Forecasting Tournament will develop and strengthen middle and high school students’ decision-making and judgment skills, critical in their lives today, as they prepare for independence and increased opportunities to make decisions for themselves, and for their long-term success. 

These skills will include: 

• Probabilistic rather than binary thinking

• Active open-mindedness

• Truth seeking

• Updating beliefs

• Intellectual humility

• Self awareness

• Identification of cognitive biases and how to reduce them

• Structuring decisions 
  

Based on existing tournaments created for adults, the Alliance’s program aims to foster increased self-confidence, student engagement in classroom topics and current events, curiosity in searching for additional information, and the discipline to predict outcomes, thus helping shape better decisions. The tournament also will help students see themselves as stakeholders rather than bystanders in events that both surround and impact their lives. Forecasting questions – based on a series of current events, many with historic roots – will help students think critically and probabilistically about important issues facing humanity and our world. The project will increase their sense of agency and citizenship.

Here's the mechanism by which the applicant expects their project will achieve positive outcomes.

Based on the success of our Spring 2022 forecasting tournament pilot, the Alliance plans to hold a second, larger pilot in Fall 2022, with the aim of continuing to learn as we prepare for a national tournament in Fall 2023 (please note that this project timeline has been updated from the first round which had anticipated the national tournament during the 2022-2023 academic year). 

The competitive nature of the tournament, along with thought-provoking questions, will engage students’ imaginations, energy, and desire to succeed. Each question will be crafted by forecasting experts, with an eye on ensuring student interest, and will require students to do additional research, work together on new ideas, collaborate as they review potential outcomes, and think critically as they form predictions. The tournament encourages teams to update their predictions as new information becomes available, building the discipline of students to keep searching for updates or data that might impact their work and refine their thinking. 

As the national tournament progresses, forecasted events will resolve and students will receive feedback on how their forecasts performed. Students will learn to reflect – rationally and with an open mind – on the outcomes of their predictions which will in turn, strengthen their decision-making skills. They also will learn to collaborate to reflect on their past predictions, and work to improve moving forward. It will teach them the value of considering varied views, embracing revision, and teamwork. It also will build in them the skill of organizing their own thoughts and sharing them clearly, concisely, and convincingly with others. 

Another mechanism by which we expect a positive outcome is the successful pilot tournament conducted in Spring 2022 in partnership with Good Judgment, included three schools with three secondary teachers, teaching History, Math, and English. A total of about 80 students participated. All three teachers unanimously endorsed the pilot, saying the potential impact on their students and others was far-reaching.

What will it look like if this project has gone well in 12 months' time?

In 12 months’ time after a grant has been awarded (approx. October 2023), the National Student Forecasting Tournament project will have completed several important goals, including: 

1) Selecting a partner for a digital platform to use in the Fall 2023 National Student Forecasting Tournament (Good Judgment is one of the possibilities for partnership); 

2) Fully incorporating learnings from the Spring and Fall 2022 pilots into planning for Fall 2023 National Student Forecasting Tournament; and 

3) Launching the Fall 2023 National Student Forecasting Tournament with at least 1,000 engaged students and well-prepared teachers across 20 or more states.

The tournament will be 16 weeks in length with the first four weeks being dedicated to teacher training; and then, the 12-week competition.The Alliance looks forward to sharing data and learnings with Clearer Thinking and funders in early 2024.

Here you can review the entire public portion of the application (which contains a lot more information about the applicant and their project):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1N0dqbs19HizZfmWilquiMkoToyZfgINyb6w4F88IMSo

Sep 20, 3:42pm: