If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

"Will it go well" evaluated on a 10 year timescale from the deployment of the project.

Linked question: https://manifold.markets/TomGoldthwait/will-someone-in-the-world-engage-in

Will someone in the world engage in stratospheric aerosol injection before the year 2030?

46% chance. From Wikipedia: "Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of solar geoengineering (or solar radiation modification) to reduce global warming. This would introduce aerosols into the stratosphere to create a cooling effect via global dimming and increased albedo, which occurs naturally from volcanic winter." Will resolve yes so long as someone in the world does this on purpose for the purpose of mitigating climate change. Does not need to be a state actor - for instance, if a rogue organization did this on their own, it would still count. EDIT: In order to resolve YES, there would need to be a large enough effort that it is generally projected to have a measurable impact on climate. Small-scale trial runs do not count.

If that market resolves NO, this market resolves N/A.

If that market resolves YES, then we start a 10-year timer. At the end of that time, I'll evaluate whether the SAI has caused more harm than good. If I think that the SAI project was a good thing and achieved its goals, resolves YES. If I think that the SAI project was harmful and I'd prefer to go back in time to "undo", resolves NO.

I'll ignore the value of knowledge gained by running the project, opportunity costs, and the cost to carry out the project itself.

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