The US will have their first female president in 2024?
Standard
45
Ṁ3558
Jan 1
41%
chance

Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/

Carrie Poppy: I guess the royals are not celebrities. “The US will have their first female president.” Okay. Specific. Good.

Ross Blocher: Uh-oh, Does that mean Nikki Haley? Mm.

Carrie Poppy: Well, at least that would be confirmatory.

Ross Blocher: Oh, I guess it could also be like the other predictor was saying that Kamala Harris will take over. So. Okay.

I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)

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I will defer to Ross and Carrie's interpretation, but my reading is yes she would have to take office in 2024 for this to count.

Mentioning Nikki Haley suggests that a female president simply has to be elected, don’t you think? @IanCullinan

Yeah, the trouble with psychic predictions is they're deliberately vague. Like I said, I'll defer to the podcast for resolution.

bought Ṁ150 NO

If she has to take office in 2024, this should be a lot lower in probability.

sold Ṁ25 NO

But I doubt they will interpret it that way

bought Ṁ100 YES

would they have to take office in 2024?