Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Carrie Poppy: I guess the royals are not celebrities. “The US will have their first female president.” Okay. Specific. Good.
Ross Blocher: Uh-oh, Does that mean Nikki Haley? Mm.
Carrie Poppy: Well, at least that would be confirmatory.
Ross Blocher: Oh, I guess it could also be like the other predictor was saying that Kamala Harris will take over. So. Okay.
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:
Resolution criteria if "best judgement" wins the poll:
YES if:
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, or
Kamala Harris becomes president via the operation of the 25th amendment during 2024, or
any other woman wins the 2024 presidential election or becomes president during 2024
for example, via electoral college shenanigans
NO if no woman wins the 2024 presidential election, nor becomes president during 2024
1,000
3.00Potential arb https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first
But note "in 2024" isn't the same thing as "in Biden's first term"
@traders my resolution criteria for this market failed to account for the possibility that we wouldn't get ratings from Ross and Carrie, but with the podcast having ended that now seems pretty likely. Please vote in this poll to let me know if you'd prefer me to use my judgement instead, or just resolve this market N/A.
Either way, I will not trade in this market.
@vibhav given the Nikki Haley wording you pointing out, here's how I plan to resolve this one if "best judgement" wins the poll:
YES if:
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, or
Kamala Harris becomes president via the operation of the 25th amendment during 2024, or
any other woman wins the 2024 presidential election or becomes president during 2024
for example, via electoral college shenanigans
NO if no woman wins the 2024 presidential election, nor becomes president during 2024
Mentioning Nikki Haley suggests that a female president simply has to be elected, don’t you think? @IanCullinan