Hashem Safieddine is considered the most likely candidate for the next secretary-general of Hezbollah, following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

(There were reports that Safieddine officially became leader on Sep 29th, but these have not been substantiated)

Will he survive the year?

Resolves NO on credible reporting of Safieddine's death by reliable media sources in 2024, local time in Lebanon.

Resolves YES if he is still alive or if evidence of his death is sufficiently ambiguous. As this may be a judgement call, I won't bet in this market.