As of 2024, Manifold will limit total monthly charity donations across the site to US$10,000 per month.

Currently, actual donations fall well short of that cap, and so the cap is unlikely to make much of a difference initially. But if that's no longer the case, and donations are starting to hit up against the cap, will it increase?

This market resolves YES if Manifold increases the donation cap by any amount, NO if there is a six-month period after the introduction of the cap in which donations exceed US$54000 (90% average utilisation of the cap), and NO if Manifold abolishes donations, and this is stated to be permanent.

Market close date will be extended until one of these things happens.

The relevant date for resolving the market YES in the case of the cap increasing is the date the increase actually comes into effect. The relevant date for resolving NO is the end of the calendar month, after which the six-month total of donations exceeds the $54k threshold. If the increase comes into effect exactly at the end of the six month period in which the $54k threshold was reached, such that it's a tie, the market will resolve NO.

If shenanigans or bugs occur that lead to inflated donation numbers that Manifold will not honour for good reasons, I will do my best to exclude them. The spirit of this market is to measure whether the cap will meaningfully limit actual donations, not what the numbers in a database temporarily say.

I will compute monthly donation totals by adding up charity transactions from Manifold's /txns table (accessed via the supabase API), for calendar months in Pacific Time, which I assume is how the cap will be implemented. I may change this if it turns out the cap is implemented based on a different timezone, or a rolling 30-day cap, or whatever else. If this data is no longer available via the supabase API, I'll get it wherever I can or N/A the market if the outcome can't be reasonably ascertained. If Manifold publishes the monthly cap utilisation numbers more directly, I will use that instead of calculating them myself.

Update: Manifold is allowing a grace period of a day or two before imposing the cap. I will not count this as any kind of "increase" to the cap.