61% chance. https://manifold.markets/stats An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks. Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are fine. In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.