https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Addendum Sep 13th:
Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's
community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular
collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are
fine.
In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to
correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน291 | |
| 2 | แน259 | |
| 3 | แน69 | |
| 4 | แน61 | |
| 5 | แน48 |
@higherLEVELING Could be totally unrelated, but there is some strange trading activity on e.g. this market, pointed out by @firstuserhere on discord:
https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-manifold-use-a-loan-rate-that
There are 44 newish accounts betting 1 mana each all within 30m or so of each other, and having done so approx once per day for the last week or so.
@Gen points out that these accounts seem to have funnelled most of their initial mana all to one account, and they're betting amongst themselves, so is probably just trader bonus and initial mana farming and not an attempt to manipulate engagement numbers. Nonetheless if they kept it up for maybe another week and a couple of days, it would add +44 to the engaged users count.
@higherLEVELING To clarify, if there is mana farming that affects engagement but doesn't look like it's intended as manipulation of engagement markets specifically, I don't want to exclude that activity affecting resolution - that kind of stuff is surely going on all the time to some extent, and it's just something we have to factor in when predicting what the stats will be.
Unfortunate that deciding whether the purpose of alts is to manipulate or to farm mana might require a judgement call, since of course I have been trading heavily in these markets. Hopefully we can simply alert the admins and these accounts won't persist their activity long enough to affect engagement numbers at all. It's only 44 accounts, so it can't affect most of these engagement markets, but it could affect some of them!
@chrisjbillington oh ok interesting. I guess if it seems weird like that it should be checked. Is it even worth it for the person whos funnelling it? For all that effort, how much are they making? Was this super basic and/or obvious ? Will it be figured out who it belongs to?
@higherLEVELING Yeah it's pretty obvious, especially if you're an admin and can look at manalinks (us plebs can no longer access the manalink database otherwise I could check for myself). Without seeing the manalinks, you can still see all the new accounts' balances drop by ~500 without them having placed any bets that large, and there is one account you can see whose balance spikes by ~500 many times. 44 ร 500 is 22k, so I guess that's something.
I imagine admins will figure it out pretty quick when they get to looking at it, might just be a matter of if they have time with manifest coming up.
@chrisjbillington ohok. That makes sense. But manalinks sounds too obvious.. wouldnt they bet it in some market instead so it's not as ez to find out
@higherLEVELING You'd think so. Don't know, guess they're just not really thinking too hard about it.
@chrisjbillington I just took a look now. Yeah it is quite obvious. It looks like some was washed over In the coinflip market