Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Addendum Sep 13th:
Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's
community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular
collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are
fine.
In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to
correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.
1,000
3.00
@Agh very fire my favorite part about this deep mathematical analysis is when you showed that this market will barely resolve YES on the very last day of September.
@8 yes you should all bet massive amounts of YES on this careful analysis, can't go wrong 👍
@chrisjbillington i would but a very cruel man named Chris Billington has rigged this market with a super spicy bug which is pretty crazy because this market will probably resolve N/A.
@8 I've promised not to rig it, using bugs or otherwise. If you think it will resolve N/A I'll make a market about that and bet against you if you like!
@8 thanks for the bet!
No rigging is necessary, engagement is just a pretty resilient metric is all. Extrapolating the trend isn't particularly useful IMHO - the users most likely to become disengaged have already done so and we should expect the decline to slow.
@chrisjbillington Definitely slowed down faster than expected. If we can prove rigging, curious if this will be N/Aed
@PC rigging / bugs resolve N/A according to the esteemed community manager known has david
@8 I'm not rigging it, using bugs or otherwise. If someone were rigging a market like this though, I wouldn't bet on such a market getting N/Ad by admins - it would be market manipulation, but not misresolution. Misresolution that profits the creator is against the rules, manipulation generally is not.
You may be thinking about recent events that prompted David to say he'll modify the community guidelines to disallow market manipulation that involves violating other websites' terms of service. This change won't disallow market manipulation generally, only manipulation that violates other websites' terms of service specifically.
As far as I'm aware, market manipulation would have been totally fair game here, other than the fact that I (and @Gen) have promised not to do it (even that would not be against the rules, it would just make me a liar). Others might try though, and if they succeed, it won't cause this market to resolve N/A.
@PC faster than you expected, maybe! You can see one of my earlier comments here saying I expected it. Of course if I were rigging it I would have a better idea what to expect, but I've promised not to and like to think that's worth something.
@chrisjbillington I'm rigging it, I have proposed to over 100 users so far to keep engagement numbers high. According to this article in Brides magazine there should be a spike in marriages 12-18 months from now. Keep your eyes out for any follow-up markets.
@Gen Wrong market mate
https://manifold.markets/tfae/will-manifold-have-at-least-2-engag
@Gen Truthfully, if anyone is particularly worried about "rigging" here (absent use of alts or bugs) you shouldn't be trading on the market.
I have no intention to rig it, I don't even know how you would, but assuming the "rigging" is just done by increasing the metric legitimately (whether its pinging people like Chris did, or something else) who cares?
@chrisjbillington Huh, looks like there is a bug where if you hit the post button too quickly after pasting a link, the link preview comes up as a separate comment.
@chrisjbillington Make that 10k if anyone is interested
FYI- my only rationale is that I want to be #1 no holder
>Mfw all the orders are (cancelled)
