Traders please note the addendum to the description: resolution will not respect manipulation that runs afoul of Manifold's community guidelines.

My deep mathematical analysis shows that this market will barely resolve YES on the very last day of September.

(this is not financial advice)

@Agh Making a huge bet on YES now and will blame you if it doesn't succeed

@Agh very fire my favorite part about this deep mathematical analysis is when you showed that this market will barely resolve YES on the very last day of September.

@8 yes you should all bet massive amounts of YES on this careful analysis, can't go wrong 👍

@chrisjbillington i would but a very cruel man named Chris Billington has rigged this market with a super spicy bug which is pretty crazy because this market will probably resolve N/A.

@8 I've promised not to rig it, using bugs or otherwise. If you think it will resolve N/A I'll make a market about that and bet against you if you like!

@chrisjbillington No bugs, hmmmmmm...................................... okay!

@8 thanks for the bet!

No rigging is necessary, engagement is just a pretty resilient metric is all. Extrapolating the trend isn't particularly useful IMHO - the users most likely to become disengaged have already done so and we should expect the decline to slow.

@chrisjbillington Definitely slowed down faster than expected. If we can prove rigging, curious if this will be N/Aed

@PC rigging / bugs resolve N/A according to the esteemed community manager known has david

@8 I'm not rigging it, using bugs or otherwise. If someone were rigging a market like this though, I wouldn't bet on such a market getting N/Ad by admins - it would be market manipulation, but not misresolution. Misresolution that profits the creator is against the rules, manipulation generally is not.

You may be thinking about recent events that prompted David to say he'll modify the community guidelines to disallow market manipulation that involves violating other websites' terms of service. This change won't disallow market manipulation generally, only manipulation that violates other websites' terms of service specifically.

As far as I'm aware, market manipulation would have been totally fair game here, other than the fact that I (and @Gen) have promised not to do it (even that would not be against the rules, it would just make me a liar). Others might try though, and if they succeed, it won't cause this market to resolve N/A.

@PC faster than you expected, maybe! You can see one of my earlier comments here saying I expected it. Of course if I were rigging it I would have a better idea what to expect, but I've promised not to and like to think that's worth something.

@chrisjbillington I'm rigging it, I have proposed to over 100 users so far to keep engagement numbers high. According to this article in Brides magazine there should be a spike in marriages 12-18 months from now. Keep your eyes out for any follow-up markets.

@Gen Wrong market mate

https://manifold.markets/tfae/will-manifold-have-at-least-2-engag

Will Manifold have at least 2 engaged users at the end of the month? (read desc.)

78% chance. Resolves YES if: At least 2 Manifold users announce their intention to marry (not necessarily to each other) in the comments of this market before close They still intend to marry at 2023-09-30 23:59:59 UTC They still have Manifold accounts at 2023-09-30 23:59:59 UTC I see convincing photographic evidence of these claims (e.g. engagement ring, marriage certificate)

@Gen Truthfully, if anyone is particularly worried about "rigging" here (absent use of alts or bugs) you shouldn't be trading on the market.

I have no intention to rig it, I don't even know how you would, but assuming the "rigging" is just done by increasing the metric legitimately (whether its pinging people like Chris did, or something else) who cares?

More engagement gambling:

/chrisjbillington/what-day-will-manifold-have-the-few
/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-more-engaged-use-7724b79765ea
/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-more-engaged-use-83914ae46ea5

@chrisjbillington Huh, looks like there is a bug where if you hit the post button too quickly after pasting a link, the link preview comes up as a separate comment.

See also:
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-another-day-abov

5k NO limit order at 18%

@chrisjbillington Make that 10k if anyone is interested

FYI- my only rationale is that I want to be #1 no holder

@Gen - Might not be my best idea. But done for you two

Alright folks, let's do this properly:

>Mfw all the orders are (cancelled)

@Gen I need mana

@MarcusAbramovitch when I get they will go back up

@Gen back up now