Will a MORENA candidate win the 2023 State of Mexico gubernatorial election?
resolved Jun 30

The State of Mexico (Estado de México) is the most populous state in Mexico. On June 4th 2023, it will hold an election to elect its next Governor. Its Governership has fixed, six-year terms, with no possibility of re-election.

Since 1951, the Governor of the State of Mexico has been a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). This same party also held power federally, uninterrupted, from 1929 to 2000, and has its roots in the State of Mexico.

This market will resolve YES if the winner of the next state of Mexico gubernatorial election is a member of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the political party of which the current president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is a member.

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predicted YES

I'm having a hard time finding where the results from an official count would be or whether they're available yet, and all reporting on this is as if it's a done deal, so I'm resolving.

A preliminary count has the MORENA candidate, Delfina Gomez, winning the election by a decent margin. Her opponent has conceded.

However, this isn't official and there's probably a few percent chance the full count goes the other way. I will resolve based on the electoral institute's official announcement of the result following the full count.