Mohammed Deif is the supreme military commander of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.
This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Mohammed Deif by Israeli military forces before the end of 2024, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at the end of 2024.
If Deif's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.
In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Deif at the end of 2024, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Deif says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.
As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.
Corner cases: If Deif kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.
Addendum Nov 11th 2023: this market will resolve at the latest at end of 2024, given the state of public knowledge at that time. If Deif was killed/captured before the end of 2024 but we don't find out about it until 2025, this market will still resolve NO
1,000
3.00I'm not seeing any serious doubts. Hamas denied Deif's death initially, but hasn't commented since the IDF said yesterday that they could confirm his death.
There was no immediate comment on the Israeli claim by Hamas, which had previously said Deif survived the strike in Gaza. A member of Hamas’ political bureau, Izzat al-Risheq, said in a statement Thursday that confirming or denying his death is the responsibility of the group’s military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades, which so far has been silent.
Hamas neither confirmed nor denied the killing of Deif, but one official, Ezzat Rashaq, said any word on deaths of its leaders was its responsibility alone.
"Unless either of them (the Hamas political and military leadership) announces it, no news published in the media or by any other parties can be confirmed," Rashaq said.
It's normal for Hamas to not confirm its members' deaths, and the lack of further denial now is perhaps as close as we can expect to a confirmation.
Although it's only the word of the IDF to go on, this seems to be taken at face value by the media. Everyone is being careful to attribute the claim to Israel, but there's no commentary actually calling it into question - other than comments about Hamas initially denying his death a few weeks ago.
Wikipedia is careful to disclaim "(unconfirmed)" next to anything about his death in the infobox, but the edit to the main article changing "Deif [...] is" → "Deif [...] was" has stood.
I think this is good enough for me. Resolving YES.
If there's literally no proof of life from Deif by the end of the year since the strike, but also no confirmation he's dead, does this still resolve NO?
Edit: I suppose that'd mostly dependent on wikipedia, who haven't updated their article. hm.
No proof of life when people have strong expectations that if he were alive, they would have seen proof of life, might be treated as strong evidence that he's dead. If he's widely believed to be dead and it doesn't seem to be contentious, I think that's fine for a YES resolution even if there isn't proof.
But if there are not strong expectations of such proof of life in a 6 month timeframe (when was the last time he was heard from?), then the situation will be genuinely ambiguous.
The wording I wrote in the criteria reads (to me now) as if there is a somewhat high bar for a non-N/A resolution in the case of uncertainty. I don't think the bar is as high as "proof", but it sounds like it is at least as high as "presumed dead, and nobody is seriously speculating otherwise".
I am not up to date with the news, so these are general comments.
There's strong incentive for him to show proof of life if he can for PR reasons (Hamas are strongly trying to claim he's alive to avoid the morale loss). Unclear when the last time he was proven alive was, but there's also the question of what counts as proof of life - e.g. Israeli intelligence knew where he was and so presumably had many cases of proof of life over the last few months (but otoh it's unclear if they'd publish it now if they did find out he was alive).