2024 Death Pool (add your own)
Mini
19
1.3k
2025
68%
Jimmy Carter
52%
GPT 3.5 (the web interface)
50%
Dick van Dyke
38%
Pope Francis
38%
Dick Cheney
34%
Mel Brooks
29%
Clint Eastwood
22%
Katherine Middleton
19%
Emmanuel Macron
18%
Vladimir Putin
16%
King Charles
13%
Lula da Silva (president of Brazil)
12%
Boris Johnson
10%
Ron DeSantis
10%
Donald Trump
9%
Joe Biden
7%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
4%
chris (@strutheo)

Anyone who dies in 2024 will resolve YES. Anyone alive at the end of 2024 will resolve NO

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I think that, based on the messaging and how long it has taken to get information about both cases, Katerine Middleton being higher than King Charles here is correct.

As has also been shown with UFOs and the "Russian secret national security threat," when the government says nothing or very little, the answer usually is that something bad is being hidden.

@SteveSokolowski I’m on the fence. Charles is at an age where something other than cancer is not unlikely to take his life in the next nine months. Then again both his parents lived to be 900.

@SteveSokolowski it does sound like you think the US and UK governments are one and the same, and that the UK government makes decisions the Royal Household can make by itself.

@BrunoParga No, I actually just think that humans are the same. Most are cruel, self-interested creatures who are more worried about themselves than others. Thus, by default without knowing anything more about the situation, I always assume that the motive for hiding something is bad. More than 50% of the time, that has turned out to be true.

In this case, when they ask for "privacy," I certainly understand that they don't want people going onto their land and bothering them while they are recovering. It doesn't make sense to me that they wouldn't simply state what type of cancer it is.

As I said in another market, if the answer was basal cell carcinoma, PV, or even breast cancer, they would have immediately included that in the statement.

@SteveSokolowski Wow that’s categorical! And bold! Consider the possibility that no one here has expertise in the inner workings of the royal family.. Even if we’re just speaking of some circles of Brits, I know many who are careful about parading personal details..

chris (@strutheo)

5%. Seems high. You wanna weigh in @strutheo.

@chris 😬i think i can make it at least another 8 months...