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Resolves to 225-275 million

$244,477,464 (unofficially official)

Double feature may save the movie industry and cinemas if studios do it like "Barbenheimer"

I think these kinds of markets always undervalue unlikely options. I bought the 225-275 million option at 2% and am now up 1013% (I sadly only spent 1M). It should happen very rarely that something with 2% actually happens. But on these multi choice markets people are systemically biased and let unlikely things appear super unlikely.

@Timothy I feel this type, in regards to something being "released" like a movie or video game, should close before the movie premiers/opens or game release.
Otherwise, IMO, this is not a prediction market, it is more of a "follow the herd".

@SirCryptomind Could be true. But the phenom I described happens on all sorts of markets, about movies or anything else.

Oops, my betting on this market is a little bit silly, need to stop betting before mathing :-). But here's my crappy analysis for y'all...

1) Domestic opening (Thu previews + Fri) is 70M so far for Barbie, 33M for Oppenheimer = $103M total
2) Generally, for Fri movies, Sat/Sun combined is usually 1x-1.55x of Fri opens for the #1 movie (including preview take), based on this Box Office Daily Report.
- e.g.: Shang Chi (~1.55x), Jurassic World (~1.42x), Thor: Love of God and Thunder (~1.07x), No Way Home (1.13x), Dr Strange (1.05x), Nope (1.3x), Free Guy (1.7x), A Quiet Place (1.47x), Minions: Rise of Gru (1.16x)

1x multiple: 206M
1.2x multiple: 226M
1.4x multiple: 247M
1.55x multiple: 262M

This points towards 225-275 being very likely (and just a large range to bet on), but >275 could be undervalued at 3%.

I think it's possible because of Barbenheimer, you might exceed the 1.55x multiple for Sat/Sun, from some combination of (1) People may want to watch both on the same day (for the meme) and can't watch both on Fri, or (2) people want to watch the second after seeing the first earlier in the weekend, and (3) both movies are really well reviewed (90%+ RT) and the marketing/virality is just crazy for this thing.

1.6x multiple: 267M
1.66x multiple: 275M
1.7x multiple: 278M

@wustep Appreciate this analysis. Would tip you

@PC You can send a managram :)

@chilli @wustep done ;)

https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-barbenheimer-1235443828/

‘Barbie’ Glams Up Summer With $150M+ Opening, ‘Oppenheimer’ Excites $75M+ – Box Office Update

Friday Miday: Warner Bros.’ Barbie is eyeing $68M-70M today, including last night’s previews, for what’s shaping up to be the best opening of the year with $150M at 4,243 theaters…

@parhizj not domestic

@jeremiahsamroo
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/07/21
70.5M so far for Barbie...

@parhizj
Just updated Oppenheimer total so far: 33M

Edit: thats 33 + 70.5 = ~104M

@parhizj

Isn't that just from Friday?

Or are Thursday and Friday combined per movie?

Barbie

Oppenheimer

@SirCryptomind
It's cumulative, but as far as I know for boxoffice mojo, they aggregate previews into Opening Weekend totals.

@SirCryptomind BoxOfficeMojo's has numbers now for both movies so far. It matches the other site's numbers (70.5M and 33M)

“Barbenheimer” weekend begins with a bang, as “Barbie” snares $22.3 million in Thursday night preview tickets.

Universal’s “Oppenheimer” looks to open between $40 million and $60 million. The movie nabbed $10.5 million Thursday night.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/barbenheimer-box-office-thursday-ticket-sales.html

‘Barbenheimer’ gets off to hot start with $32.8 million in combined Thursday sales

“Barbenheimer” weekened begins with a bang as “Barbie” snared $22.3 million in Thursday night preview tickets, the most of any film released so far in 2023.

225-275 sounds ridiculous...

@FrederikNygaard care to share any inside info or insights?

@parhizj literally

@parhizj Apparently Box Office pro says 140-175 for barbie and 52-75 for oppenheimer, which would put an upper end result firmly in that category. They are the only ones projecting those wild numbers though. Out of range of every other forecast (75-140m barbie, 40-52m oppenheimer).

@jeremiahsamroo It is unlikely (IMO) that a long and boring adult movie like oppenheimer with an R rating can snag more than 40 million in its opening weekend.

@jeremiahsamroo Apparently Barbie is not a "kids" movie either although kids can watch it.

@parhizj

Seems 227-237M is where it will end up currently. It deserves the Frankenstein-esque name of Barbenheimer.

https://deadline.com/2023/07/barbie-oppenheimer-box-office-opening-1235440879/

‘Barbie’ & ‘Oppenheimer’ To Rattle The Globe With Combined $260M+ Opening – Box Office Preview

At a time when Hollywood is suffering through historic dual strikes by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA, the motion picture industry is poised to see an enormous weekend at the box office with Warner Bros/Mat…

@SirCryptomind Market is only domestic

@RowanEvans Yea I am aware that the article is global. Still a decent read with domestic numbers in range with other sites.

@SirCryptomind
"Friday Miday: Warner Bros.’ Barbie is eyeing $68M-70M today, including last night’s previews, for what’s shaping up to be the best opening of the year with $150M at 4,243 theaters"

They got Friday about right with 70.5M, meaning 150M is plausible...