Which probability option would you choose?
20
Never closes
50% for A, 50% for B
90% for A, and 10% for B

There are 100 people total. 30 of them are from group A, 70 are from group B. And group A and B are things you cannot switched in-between from.

There are two sets of probability of death for individuals in the groups:

  1. 50% for A, 50% for B

  2. 90% for A, 10% for B

You are from one of the groups, but you don’t know which group you belong to. There are equal probability for you to belong to A or B. Would you choose option 1, or option 2?

(My vote is unintentional/accident; I do not plan to vote any of the polls in this series.)

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