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MANIFOLD
Who is responsible for the Jan 3rd 2024 bombing at Soleimani's grave in Iran, killing 100+ people?
16
Ṁ909Ṁ4k
resolved Jan 12
100%98%
Islamic State – Khorasan Province
1.3%
Internal iranian opposition
0.2%
US
0.2%
Israel
0.1%
Saudi Arabia
0.2%
The Taliban
0.2%
The Iranian government itself
0.2%Other

From wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kerman_bombings

"On 3 January 2024, a commemorative ceremony marking the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran, was marred by a series of bombings. The incident resulted in 103 deaths, while 188 others were injured. The Iranian government declared the bombings a terrorist attack."


I will resolve this question based on consensus of unbiased media or other trustworthy sources of information, if it exists at or before Jul 31. If media consensus points at a certain actor as most likely, poll options instigating that actor will be resolved "YES" and other actors will be resolved "NO". If media points to several actors as being responsible, I will resolve "YES" on those actors (fairly split, rewarding specificity more in case of overlapping answers) and other actors will be resolved "NO". If the media does not assign clear responsibility, question will be resolved N/A.

I will consult the community if there are any ambiguities. I will not vote on this question myself.
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Update Jan 3rd: My resolution criteria in the case of the media pointing fingers at no one is technically impossible due to the question format, so I modified it to resolve "N/A" in such a case.

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Based on this report: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-intelligence-confirms-islamic-states-afghanistan-branch-behind-iran-blasts-2024-01-05/ and ISIS itself taking responsibility for the attack, I am leaning toward resolving this "ISIS-K" assuming no dissenting new info comes out in the next week or so.

If anyone objects, please let me know in reply to this post, I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

US intelligence confirms ISIS-K according to Reuters

@Arky Wikipedia is now listing the perpetrators as ISIS-K

Experts are suspecting isis-k https://archive.is/GTrAW

ISIS has claimed responsibility for the bombings, this can probably resolve now. The media is pretty clearly blaming ISKP.

@Arky I've seen it, going to wait for further info to come out. I also need to know, given that ISIS did it, what faction of ISIS committed this - would it be considered "Iranian internal opposition" or not, etc.

@chatterchatty Fair enough. The article goes into some detail about these issues though. ISIS didn't initially specify which faction did the bombing, so we might never get any concrete evidence one way or another. However, there is some evidence that it was likely ISKP, which wouldn't be considered internal opposition since it is based in Afghanistan.

Going forward, I decided it's probably best if I add answers to this question myself rather than let anyone do it - please reply to this comment if you want me to add an answer that does not currently appear and I will consider it.

Would ISKP count as internal opp or as other?

@sarius I'm leaning towards "other" but I will poll the community on this if it turns out to be them. Feel free to add this as an option in the meantime - based on the resolution criteria, there can be multiple right answers!