Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:
2018: 77.53%
2012: 64.35%
2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote)
2004: 71.91%
2000: 53.44%
Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 80% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page?
In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used.
Related question:
1,000
3.00@Lorelai smart people will use it to infer things about what's going on in Russian politics, though. I mean, surely you can see that it's very different if the Kremlin says it won 50.5% of the vote, or 89%, or 100%, right? You see that, don't you?
> that value will be a lie though hahah
Well, that's why I feel so confident about betting this market up
@BrunoParga I see that they might self report different figures, obviously. None of which can be trusted.
@Lorelai nobody trusts the value, it is out of scope of predictions. It is just a game to Guess tha value.
@KongoLandwalker and it is also not irrelevant which value they'll claim. If they say they won by 51%, they're admitting that nearly half of the country doesn't want Putin. That'd be a signal for the opposition to organize harder, which might result in an overthrow of the regime.
If they feel like they can get away with saying Putin got 92% of the vote, that shows a very, very different story: they don't care about putting on a façade anymore. That sends a much more discouraging message to the opposition, if they feel they can send it.
This is what I meant when I told the other commenter that "smart people will use [the percentage] to infer things about what's going on in Russian politics".