Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump signs an executive order to reschedule marijuana to a lower drug classification by 11:59 PM ET on December 21, 2025. Resolution will be verified through official White House announcements, executive order databases (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/), or major news outlets reporting the signing. The order must direct federal agencies to pursue reclassification from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act.

Background

Marijuana is currently banned under federal law and faces the same restrictions as heroin. Trump is expected to sign an executive order to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday (as of December 12 reporting). Trump confirmed in August that he was considering reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug, meaning that it would have low abuse potential. Reclassification would ease regulations and make it easier for pot-related medicinal research to be done and create tax breaks for cannabis companies.

Considerations

If Trump orders cannabis to be rescheduled, the Drug Enforcement Administration would finalize a proposed rule for the reclassification by the summer. An executive order directing reclassification is distinct from the final DEA rulemaking process, which involves administrative procedures and public comment periods. This market resolves on the signing of the executive order itself, not the completion of the full rescheduling process.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump signs an executive order directing federal agencies to reclassify marijuana to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act by 11:59 PM ET on December 21, 2025. Resolution will be verified through official White House announcements at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/ or major news outlets reporting the signing. The order must direct agencies to pursue reclassification from Schedule I to Schedule III; signing alone without directing agency action does not resolve YES.

Background

Marijuana currently faces the same restrictions as heroin under federal law. As of December 15, Trump said the White House is "very strongly" considering signing an executive order to reschedule marijuana to a lower drug classification. Trump is expected to sign an executive order to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday (December 15), according to sources familiar with the matter. The president is expected to direct agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, similar to some common prescription painkillers. Reclassification would ease regulations and make it easier to conduct medical research and possibly create tax breaks for cannabis companies.

Considerations

If Trump orders cannabis to be rescheduled, the Drug Enforcement Administration would finalize a proposed rule for the reclassification by the summer. An executive order directing reclassification is distinct from the final DEA rulemaking process, which involves administrative procedures and public comment periods. This market resolves on the signing of the executive order itself, not the completion of the full rescheduling process.