Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, at any time on October 1, 2025 (00:00–23:59 ET), a lapse in annual appropriations causes any federal department or agency to begin shutdown operations (e.g., issuing shutdown furlough notices or activating an OMB-approved shutdown contingency plan). Verification will rely on official announcements (OPM/White House/affected agencies) or confirmation by at least two reputable outlets. (whitehouse.gov)

• Resolves NO if no lapse occurs on October 1, 2025 (e.g., a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations are enacted in time) or if a brief funding gap occurs without agencies initiating shutdown operations that day. For enactment status, use Congress.gov; for operating status/use of shutdown procedures, use OPM/agency pages. (congress.gov)

Background

• FY2026 begins on October 1, 2025. If neither full-year appropriations nor a continuing resolution is in effect, the Antideficiency Act requires agencies to cease non‑excepted operations and furlough affected staff. Shutdowns may be partial (only some agencies). (gao.gov)

• As of September 19, 2025, FY2026 appropriations were not fully enacted; a short‑term CR (H.R. 5371) is tracked on Congress.gov, and some Senate-passed appropriations have advanced, increasing the chance of a last‑minute CR rather than full enactment by Oct 1. (congress.gov)

Considerations

• Partial shutdowns count YES (if any covered agency begins shutdown operations). Essential/excepted services continue during a shutdown, which can create confusion about whether a “shutdown” occurred. (opm.gov)

• If a CR is enacted after a lapse on Oct 1, this still resolves YES (shutdown occurred that day). If a CR is enacted before Oct 1 and no agency activates shutdown procedures on Oct 1, resolves NO. (whitehouse.gov)