Will at least 3 US banks be taken over by the Federal Government before April 1st?
resolved Apr 13

Bank failure defined as being taken over by the federal government of the USA.

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I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here: https://help.manifold.markets/unresolved-markets

If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.

predicted NO

Ah @camelwrangler seems to be a deleted user. @DavidChee, is it possible to resolve anyway?

@JoshCockcroft The official policy is to wait 14 days, although I'm now thinking there should be an exception for deleted users.

predicted NO

This can be resolved NO, correct?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Time decay arb. FDIC only closes banks on fridays and this market failed to update downward on Friday the 24th

bought Ṁ70 of YES

Resolving as YES due to SVB, Silvergate Capital, and Signature Bank?

predicted YES

@camelwrangler Silvergate Capital was not taken over by the government, they are just liquidating privately, as far as I understand.

They are not on https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

predicted YES

If you agree this resolution was in error, you can ask the admins to undo it and reopen the market.

predicted NO

@jack sorry did i misread the article correctly? thanks, if incorrect how do i reach out to the admins?

predicted YES

@camelwrangler I'm getting a paywall, what does that article say about Silvergate?

Can ping @DavidChee to undo the resolution.

predicted NO

@jack The bank failed to provide reliable and consistent data, creating a significant crisis of confidence in the bank’s leadership,” the state’s Department of Financial Services said in an emailed statement Tuesday. “The decision to take possession of the bank and hand it over to the FDIC was based on the current status of the bank and its ability to do business in a safe and sound manner on Monday.”

predicted YES

@camelwrangler Interesting. I wonder if they initially planned to hand it to the FDIC, then changed their mind.


the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, or DFPI, said it will facilitate "the safe and expeditious voluntary liquidation" of Silvergate.

With the liquidation being supervised by the DFPI, it is unlikely that the agency will appoint the FDIC as receiver for Silvergate, at least for now, said John Popeo, partner at financial regulatory advisory firm The Gallatin Group.

predicted NO

@jack hi @DavidChee please undo the resolution of the market, Jack is correct.

Starting from when?