Will at least 3 US banks be taken over by the Federal Government before April 1st?
38
750Ṁ2890
resolved Apr 13
Resolved
NO

Bank failure defined as being taken over by the federal government of the USA.

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I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here: https://help.manifold.markets/unresolved-markets

If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.

predictedNO

Ah @camelwrangler seems to be a deleted user. @DavidChee, is it possible to resolve anyway?

@JoshCockcroft The official policy is to wait 14 days, although I'm now thinking there should be an exception for deleted users.

predictedNO

This can be resolved NO, correct?

Time decay arb. FDIC only closes banks on fridays and this market failed to update downward on Friday the 24th

Resolving as YES due to SVB, Silvergate Capital, and Signature Bank?

predictedYES

@camelwrangler Silvergate Capital was not taken over by the government, they are just liquidating privately, as far as I understand.

They are not on https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

predictedYES

If you agree this resolution was in error, you can ask the admins to undo it and reopen the market.

predictedNO

@jack sorry did i misread the article correctly? thanks, if incorrect how do i reach out to the admins?

predictedYES

@camelwrangler I'm getting a paywall, what does that article say about Silvergate?

Can ping @DavidChee to undo the resolution.

predictedNO

@jack The bank failed to provide reliable and consistent data, creating a significant crisis of confidence in the bank’s leadership,” the state’s Department of Financial Services said in an emailed statement Tuesday. “The decision to take possession of the bank and hand it over to the FDIC was based on the current status of the bank and its ability to do business in a safe and sound manner on Monday.”

predictedYES

@camelwrangler Interesting. I wonder if they initially planned to hand it to the FDIC, then changed their mind.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/silvergate-pursuing-voluntary-liquidation-in-california-without-fdic-74692281

the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, or DFPI, said it will facilitate "the safe and expeditious voluntary liquidation" of Silvergate.

With the liquidation being supervised by the DFPI, it is unlikely that the agency will appoint the FDIC as receiver for Silvergate, at least for now, said John Popeo, partner at financial regulatory advisory firm The Gallatin Group.

predictedNO

@jack hi @DavidChee please undo the resolution of the market, Jack is correct.

Starting from when?

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