Resolves per NOAA monthly report. Ends a week in to Feb to allow for predictions coming in before the report release.
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@c0m can we resolve based on the summary report or do we need to wait til the 13th for the complete report?
The January 2024 data in NClimGrid-daily has changed from prelim to scaled, so the final figure from tavg-202401-cns-scaled is very likely the final figure we will see on the January 2024 report.
Looks like it's an average of -0.14C, which will place it in the coldest half of all recorded Januaries in the US.
Check the data here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/nclimgrid-daily/access/averages/2024/
I expect the report to come out within a few days.
@Bayesian What, do you think I would have been betting on it during the month without following the preliminary data 🤣
The 8-14 day long range outlook now covers the remainder of January.
There was some colder weather in Texas lately, but the rest of the month is looking extremely likely to be above average temperature.
I do not recall seeing such a confident 8-14 day outlook in "Everything in the entire country is above average" at any point in the recent past.
You can view this info here:
@Eliza I do see why you bet so strongly in favour of No, though, and why you maintain your position. The Archives link in the page you linked, shows that as of the last Outlook, NOAA was predicting colder than average temperatures for most of the country for the first few weeks of January. In retrospect, I made a bad bet, but I'm going to ride it out and see how it goes. Lots of temperature predictions have been wrong in the same direction over the past few months.
@equinoxhq It's trading at 8% even though December was the warmest December ever and the last 10 days of January are forecast to be above normal for the entire contiguous US. I was thinking more people would be trading but so far the market does not respond when I buy No or sell No so it seems like no one else has any idea what the actual probability is and they are all just guessing.
@Eliza Yeah, I bought a little yes early on based on every single day in December globally being higher temperature than 2022, which was a hot year, and almost every single day being record-hot. I saw the market at like 5-10%, saw that for some reason the US wasn't following the rest of the world so far in being record hot since June, read that El Nino was anomalously hot (normally it is apparently the case that El Nino only starts to really affect the temperature the year after it starts, and at the beginning of 2023 scientists were expecting 2023 to be about like 2022 and are now trying to figure out what in their models needs adjusting) looked sideways again at that 5-10% probability,and decided to buy in.
That was a good bet based on the information i had then, and would be an even better bet based on the information i have now, in my opinion. The bad bet was getting excited at your "if this market was for December it would have resolved yes" comment, dumping a bunch of mana in at once (my guess at the right probability at that time was maybe 50-50) and then having you move it back down to 10%. Whereupon I went hunting on the NOAA website to understand why you thought it was so low, found the early January projections, kicked myself metaphorically for not guessing they would have such a projection and finding it BEFORE making a big bet against it, and for the past few days I've been going "that probability is too low, but I've already got a large chunk of my available mana in this market, which is more likely than not to resolve no, time to just chill out and see what happens".
If I was mana-rich, I would bet against you at this probability. Probably will chuck a few more small bets in from time to time.
Edit: timeline adjustment of what I knew when, looking back at the record of my bets:
January 4: I've just won a lot betting that globally every day in December would be hotter than that day last year - they all were, by a large margin, as has been true since June. "Because El Nino, obviously", I think. I look at this market and am confused. See that the US has not been breaking temperature records according to NOAA, and go "that's weird, but it can't last, 5-10% is too low".
Jan 12: I learn that climatologists models said 2023 would be about the same as 2022 and El Nino usually only has big effects the year after it starts. Their error bars around what will happen in 2024 go up, so mine do too.
Jan 13: As I guessed it might, the trend of the US not hitting temperature records breaks. I get excited and dump a bunch of mana into this market to get ahead of the rush I anticipate that does not materialize.
Past few days: I search the NOAA site and figure out why you bet the way you did, and learn an important lesson about getting over-excited. But I still wouldn't bet this down as low as you are based on the information I have right now.
But I still wouldn't bet this down as low as you are based on the information I have right now.
Well crap. Just checked the daily weather records tool. Yesterday there were very few and the few there were were balanced between hot and cold. Today? Hundreds of new cold records. Must have been a data entry backlog somewhere.
@equinoxhq Magnitude matters a lot here. Her heat chart is merely showing probability of higher than average temps, but not by how much higher. The polar vortex week have half of the country experiencing 20-30 degrees below avg temps, unless we are getting an opposite extreme heat wave for extended duration, it's really difficult to make high temp records after taking such a huge hit.
@Eliza It's good Manifold is not subject to SEC market manipulation regulations. Though I do appreciate your efforts, since I profited as well,
@Maniuser yeah, I actually do think that it's not impossible that late January could switch to being quite hot, but if you all have been experiencing 20-30 degrees below normal (even if that's Fahrenheit rather than Celsius) then my mana in this market is gone, time to move on to February. My earlier comments today where I said I'd bet yes at 5% (and when I actually did so, sigh) were based on watching the daily records many days, not seeing very many at all come in (until this morning when 1200 came in), and thinking that meant early January had come in about normal rather than colder than normal. I hadn't tried to check that against local weather reports across the US.
@equinoxhq You can find a lot of my reasoning in the two edited comments from 9 Nov 2023 and 2 Jan 2024 by clicking (edited) to see the past versions. The market absolutely refused to respond to anything I was typing so I edited them.
If you want to have a better idea of the actual likelihood, you can view the preliminary daily totals here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/nclimgrid-daily/access/averages/2024/
The tavg-202401-cns-prelim.csv file contains the daily averages through a couple days ago for the whole contiguous US. These will be adjusted from preliminary to actual values later on, probably in the first week of February, but the shift is usually small, something around 0.2-0.5 degrees C.
The average so far (data is as of 15 January right now) is -1.39C. The target from 2006 that this needs to surpass is 3.85C. So for the last 16 days of January it will require a nationwide average temp of roughly 9C.
The polar vortex week have half of the country experiencing 20-30 degrees below avg temps
This is correct. The methodology cares about both geographical area and max/min temp. During the cold streak in January, the extent of below normal temperatures covered an extremely large area and was significantly below normal. At the exact time that cold spell was happening, this market was trading at 20-40(!!!!)%. Why? I have no idea. Was no one paying attention to the weather on even a basic level?
Nothing about this market has made sense at any point.
Yesterday there were very few and the few there were were balanced between hot and cold. Today? Hundreds of new cold records. Must have been a data entry backlog somewhere.
The records come in on a delay of a few days. That's just how it works. And obviously the records page has absolutely nothing to do with the overall national average.
And obviously the records page has absolutely nothing to do with the overall national average.
Not directly, of course. But if I saw a lot of cold records being broken relative to normal (which I did a quick guess at by looking at the last 365 days row and dividing by 52), I could reasonably guess it probably wasn't going to be a record hot January. Mathematically, it could be possible to have a lot of concentrated cold breaking records and a lot of diffuse warmth leading to a high average temperature without breaking any heat records, but it'd be unlikely.
At the exact time that cold spell was happening, this market was trading at 20-40(!!!!)%. Why? I have no idea. Was no one paying attention to the weather on even a basic level?
At least I can give you an answer to this (because it was me, making a couple of uninformed bets, that pushed the probability into the 40's). Yeah, I basically wasn't paying attention to the weather. Which was stupid of me, but it is what happened. As I said earlier, December coming in as it did was something I was expecting to happen to some month at some point soon, followed by the US basically falling in line with the rest of the world and having some record months while El Nino lasted. So when your post with the big red lights came across my screen, my normal thinking processes (which would have said something like "when you made your first bets in early January, you had no data about how January would go, but now there is data about how it has gone, you should look at some of it", and also "big flashing red lights and words like 'stunner' and 'EVER' in all caps are often a trap", didn't engage. I was just like "the thing I expected to happen is happening, better jump on this while the profit opportunity still exists, markets move quick here sometimes". So I did. You say your posts don't make a difference to this market, but in this case that one did. I didn't see your earlier posts giving your reasoning, because I was late to this market and you had edited them and I didn't know until just now when you told me that you could check edit histories - but had I seen them, they would have altered my betting (or maybe I just wouldn't have bet).
Had I been living in the US, I probably would have heard about the weather there indirectly. In fact, I expected (incorrectly, it turns out) that if there was anything major causing there to be huge dips below normal, I'd hear about it somehow, Canada is not that disconnected from the US. But... nope, didn't hear about it. I find the Canadian news annoying, unrepresentative of reality and filled with commercial breaks as it is, and the American news worse, and even though I had (at the time, before jumping at your post from 5 days ago) $1.50 US mana bet on a US weather question, this was not sufficient to get me to actively seek out US weather news.
Oops.
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The contiguous U.S. average temperature during December was 40.0°F, 7.3°F above average, ranking warmest in the 129-year record.
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The December report is out, and it's a stunner!
It's the #1 warmest EVER. If this market was for December 2023 instead of January 2024, it would have resolved Yes.
Take this into account as you adjust your positions!
@Eliza This is why you should always pay more attention to what they DO, over what they say 😄.
According to the Daily Weather Records Tool, there were 3148 locations that set a daily max temperature record in December 2023! That's a lot!
How is it looking so far?