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Resolving on behalf of @c0m based on the global report, released today:

The February global surface temperature was 1.40°C (2.52°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F), making it the warmest February on record. This was 0.06°C (0.11°F) above the previous record from February 2016

That....was very close. What do we think, was 97% too confident?

@Eliza yup. I only made a big last minute yes bet because the report was out and the question hadn't closed, so why not make 15 more mana?

My 10 mana at 93% was also not a great bet, but I was low-effort collecting the daily 25 bonus.

@equinoxhq .06 is very close to NASA's .07. I made a small bet on yes at 98% after seeing the NASA data but that was probably silly. The uncertainty could well be such that it is only 95% of being within 0.1C of NASA data so I would struggle to fault someone for maintaining it should have been below 92% after NASA data and before NOAA report came out.

NASA gistemp 1.44 larger than 1.37 in Feb 2016 by 0.07

I'm going to extend this until the expected report date, like we did in January. If people have arguments for/against it between now and the report release, I don't see why you should not be able to trade on them.

@Eliza I am in favour of leaving it open. But if creator intended it to close before report releases and traders added limit orders relying on this then perhaps there might be an argument for close on 13th but as there are currently no limit orders, I think this is ok.

Perhaps for market functionality, on market set up there should be an option for a close and delete all limit orders on a date&time then reopen. Whether most traders would understand the purpose of this I am not sure. Sensible traders should put time limit on limit orders so perhaps not necessary and is just adding complications.

@ChristopherRandles My reading of "Ends a week in to March to allow for predictions coming in before the report release." is that there is a direct intention to allow us to predict up until the report release, but there is certainly the possibility that it meant something else. The site norm is also to leave markets open through the actual event. I do see your concern about limit orders, though. (I feel like limit orders should have an expiration by default, because naive traders who accidentally set up an indefinite one are sure to be sad eventually.)

98% seems high when NASA gistemp exceeds 1.3C is only at 85% see link below

Since this model uses both land and sea temperatures, and there are many indications that both land and sea temperatures so far in the month have been extremely high, I am buying some Yes even at 80%.

Related market different temperate dataset but may be useful for arbitrage or figuring out why people are betting up to 80% here ... (or maybe I should tell you the answer rather than keeping it to myself? Hmm.)

@ChristopherRandles yup, interesting market for arbitrages for sure...

@ChristopherRandles Haven't yet spelunked into https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/ well enough to find global daily summaries (tried a few times and my browser tab froze trying to load giant directories, or I was at work and the files on offer in some directories were multiple gigabytes and my pathetic work hard drive would be quite full if I downloaded more than one of them at a time). But, based on this: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world with 2016 being the year to beat, YES was looking pretty good until very recently (the only days where 2024<2016 were February 18th onward, and there's a time lag for getting data up there so almost all the data I have says 2024>2016 by around 0.3 degrees).

Yes still looks pretty good, but there's only 2/3 of the month there yet, and there are some days where 2024<2016, and they're not the same dataset, so I'm not ready to bet higher than 80%.

@equinoxhq Yep climatereanalyzer was my explanation. I misread Eliza's comment so sorry if I mistakenly gave impression I knew something.

Who is out here moving from 80% to 60% without telling us your reasoning. Show yourself!!

@Eliza I would also be keen to know - or to discuss these markets with someone!

@rkpold I know! I can't tell if there is material information that no one is sharing, or if we're all just randomly guessing.

@Eliza What has been your process so far to bet on these markets?

@rkpold First, hope people tell me the answer without needing to do anything. Second, if it looks like no one knows the answer, spend hours researching it for no apparent reason other than "seems like fun".

I've only made 2 trades for 10 mana each on this 😂

According to different reports, global temperatures will reach records in the next 5 years. However, according to "El Nino" forecast, this phenomenon will last longer this year, instead of ending in December, it will be prolonged until mid-March of 2024. Reason why ,it will still be causing impact across the globe. the heat is expected to continue with hotter than average temperatures.

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/20/1188311702/el-nino-will-likely-continue-into-early-2024-driving-even-more-hot-weather

If we keep the trend of the last 8 years, this upcoming year will be again, the hottest year ever so far. Also important to mention, that this phenomenon its being cause by us.

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/10/1147986096/extreme-weather-fueled-by-climate-change-cost-the-u-s-165-billion-in-2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/el-nio-conditions-continue-through-winter-us-forecaster-2023-09-14/

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January to March 2024, US forecaster says

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions.

@RafaelPriale It is unusual for El Nino to end before Jan-March. See

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

It does sometimes end DJF but often lasts longer. It can also be seen that generally only weak El Ninos that finish so soon and we already have a three month period at 1.3 so this El Nino isn't going to be such a weak El Nino.

Also of note, the temperature effect of El Nino is delayed compared to such ENSO indicies, so global temperature effect of the current El Nino is virtually certain to continuing into and past February 2024.

@RafaelPriale My team and I agree with Rafael’s post, as well as his bet. We would have made the same bet, that yes, February 2024 will be the hottest February on global record. We agree because based on the research, 2023 was already on track to being the hottest year on record (link), and according to NASA “2024 could be even hotter than 2023” (link). When looking at the weather December 2023 – February 2024 outlook report, temperatures do appear to be “warmer than normal” (link). According to a report done by Spectrum News 1, “According to scientists, the occurrence of floods in Vermont, extreme heat in Arizona, and the destructive wildfire in Hawaii all serve as indicators of a planet undergoing warming, not only did we experience the warmest July on record since at least 1880, but it also exceeded the prior 2019 record by two-tenths of a degree Celsius.” (link). Additionally, Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, has stated that they expect 2023 to potentially set a record for high temperatures and anticipate even warmer conditions in 2024 (link). Going back to Rafael’s comment, El Nino is expected to impact the weather, with the latest weekly El Nino index values remaining in excess of +1.0°C (link).

References:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/climate-crisis-2023-set-to-be-warmest-on-record-after-september-heat.html#:~:text=2023%20is%20on%20course%20to,hottest%20summer%20in%20human%20history

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/environment/2023/08/14/2024-will-be-even-hotter-than-2023--nasa-says

https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2324outlook