Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?
Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?
8
120Ṁ1471resolved Oct 30
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Four other sections address political matters:
Article 4: elections in Donbas. The day after the pullback of heavy weaponry from the contact line, a dialogue on local elections will start in accordance with Ukrainian law and the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014. No later than 30 days after the signing of the Minsk-2 agreement (i.e. by 14 March), Ukraine’s parliament will adopt a resolution defining the area in which the temporary law on special status will apply (to be based on the delineation line in the memorandum of 19 September 2014).
Article 11: constitutional reform. A new Ukrainian constitution will enter into force by the end of 2015. Its ‘key element’ will be ‘decentralization’, which will take account of the ‘peculiarities’ of occupied Donbas, as agreed with the DNR/LNR representatives. Ukraine will also adopt ‘permanent legislation’ on special status before the end of 2015. This law will include: an amnesty; ‘the right of linguistic self-determination’; the involvement of the local authorities in the appointment of prosecutors and courts; agreements between Ukraine’s central authorities and the local authorities covering ‘economic, social and cultural development’; state support for the socio-economic development of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; assistance from the central authorities to support ‘transnational cooperation’ between the occupied regions and regions of the Russian Federation; rights for local parliaments to create ‘people’s militia units’; and no early termination of the powers of local parliaments and elected officials.
Article 12: elections in Donbas. Election-related questions will be dealt with on the basis of the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014 and agreed with the DNR/LNR. Elections will be held in accordance with the relevant standards of the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR)."
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement
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This question resolves positively if Ukraine fulfills its obligations relating to elections and constitutional reform regarding Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in Articles 4, 11, and 12 of the Minsk II Agreement. This question will also resolve positively if Ukraine fulfills obligations that exceed the ones detailed by Minsk II with respect to granting political autonomy in the Donbas. This question will resolve ambiguously if Russia annexes the relevant districts in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.
This question will resolve on either 1/1/23 or after Ukraine fulfills its obligations outlined above.
#RussiaUkraine #Ukraine
Feb 23, 5:49pm: I'm open to suggestions on ambiguously resolving this question given developments. Ambiguously resolve would be N/A. A regime change would resolve yes so long as the government is recognized by the United States or 3X members of the P5.
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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