Will the United States cut Russia off from the SWIFT system by 2023?
66
204
100
resolved Apr 5
Resolved
YES
“ “Some call it the "nuclear option." It doesn't involve weapons though. As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT. It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies. The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.” https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-swift-nuclear-option/31601868.html “The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility — something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if the United States cuts Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, regardless of whether they are later allowed back in. Jan 14, 3:36pm: This question resolves on 1/1/2023 or after the US cuts Russia from the SWIFT system, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine Feb 27, 1:37pm: The question didn't specify a full disconnection from SWIFT and they are taking actions against Russian banks, so I feel like it should resolve positively will a partial cut off. It has also been pointed out that the US does not have the power to cut Russia out, but if the US asks (with or without allies) to cut Russia out and SWIFT complies, it will count as a yes.
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bought Ṁ1 of YES
A similar question in Good Judgement Open resolved to "Yes" today: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2288-between-27-february-2022-and-27-august-2022-will-russia-be-restricted-or-banned-from-access-to-the-swift-banking-system I suppose the hangup here is whether the United States is the responsible party for cutting Russia off.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
If those Russian banks and no more are cut off, at what % does this resolve?
bought Ṁ10 of YES
"The European Union, U.S. and other Western nations on Saturday announced they would cut off a 'certain number of Russian banks' from the SWIFT international payments system" https://www.axios.com/eu-expels-russia-swift-network-728618c1-2d09-4c3d-a325-551635adfbec.html
bought Ṁ100 of YES
Seems as if Hungary, Italy, Germany, etc. have come around on this, which could be the push needed to convince the US to act as well. SWIFT sanctions seem to only work well if everyone is on board.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1481385087690227714 BREAKING: Draft Russian sanctions bill coming out of the senate includes cutting Russia off of the SWIFT banking system if they invade Ukraine. The US used this against Iran and it set them back to the economic dark ages.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Sorry -- there's a bug at the moment where the resolution year doesn't show up in the description. It's on our backlog to fix!
bought Ṁ5 of NO
could you clarify the date? I am assuming this resolves on 1/1/2023.