Leaving M180 in an exit order for anyone that wants to sell out, for 1 week.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/10/1211830728/speaker-johnson-navigates-mission-impossible-to-avoid-shutdown-without-clear-pla

Some YES limit orders available for 3 days.

Anyone spotted any statements from the last shutdown scare from the new speaker?

How exactly can the shutdown be avoided?

@Odoacre Congress elects a speaker and they pass a budget, even a temporary one.

I have put up a 10k limit order at 59% on Yes. It will last for 1 month.

Kalshi is at 54%. https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31

This could’ve all been avoided if John Fetterman out on a suit

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1704924781626163619

GoodJudgement at 72%

Kalshi gives 72% chance of government shutdown this year. https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31

https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-spending-mccarthy-fc01dd72a6a0e3c25683b9669ec351cf

Government shutdown warnings rise as Republicans seek deeper cuts in budget battle

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s bid to appease hard-liners in his caucus and get the House moving again has some Democratic worried about the road ahead when it comes time to passing legislation to keep the government running. Republicans left Washington in early June unable to approve a routine proc…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-budget-would-cut-deficits-by-3-trillion-over-10-years-raise-taxes-on-businesses-b5081d03?mod=hp_lead_pos6

President Biden's budget will ask for increase in military spending. McCarthy promised military spending cuts in his deal to become speaker.

"The budget is unlikely to gain momentum on Capitol Hill as Republicans, who control the House, are expected to oppose most of Mr. Biden’s proposals. [...] House Republicans have said spending cuts will be a condition for raising the debt ceiling, which the U.S. is already bumping up against. Mr. Biden says he won’t negotiate on the subject, calling for a “clean” debt ceiling increase without conditions. The government could become unable to pay its bills as soon as this summer, and failing to raise the debt ceiling could wreak havoc on global markets."

I assume you mean in the US?

@BjornJurgens That's right, I'll update to clarify.

@brwa Just for further language tightening,

• You probably mean federal?

• If you're using furloughs, you might want to specify if you're counting the order itself, or the actual furlough day arriving,

• and whether furloughs of x many specific departments counts...