We'll define a "shutdown" as government employees being furloughed.
Jan 8, 4:11pm: Will there be a government shutdown in 2023? → Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023?
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Leaving M180 in an exit order for anyone that wants to sell out, for 1 week.
Kalshi gives 72% chance of government shutdown this year. https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31
President Biden's budget will ask for increase in military spending. McCarthy promised military spending cuts in his deal to become speaker.
"The budget is unlikely to gain momentum on Capitol Hill as Republicans, who control the House, are expected to oppose most of Mr. Biden’s proposals. [...] House Republicans have said spending cuts will be a condition for raising the debt ceiling, which the U.S. is already bumping up against. Mr. Biden says he won’t negotiate on the subject, calling for a “clean” debt ceiling increase without conditions. The government could become unable to pay its bills as soon as this summer, and failing to raise the debt ceiling could wreak havoc on global markets."
@brwa Just for further language tightening,
You probably mean federal?
If you're using furloughs, you might want to specify if you're counting the order itself, or the actual furlough day arriving,
and whether furloughs of x many specific departments counts...