Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

We'll define a "shutdown" as government employees being furloughed.

Jan 8, 4:11pm: Will there be a government shutdown in 2023? → Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023?

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predicted NO

This can resolve to NO

@burkebot Yup, thanks!

Leaving M180 in an exit order for anyone that wants to sell out, for 1 week.

predicted NO

Some YES limit orders available for 3 days.

predicted YES

Anyone spotted any statements from the last shutdown scare from the new speaker?

How exactly can the shutdown be avoided?

@Odoacre Congress elects a speaker and they pass a budget, even a temporary one.

I have put up a 10k limit order at 59% on Yes. It will last for 1 month.

predicted YES

This could’ve all been avoided if John Fetterman out on a suit

GoodJudgement at 72%

predicted YES


President Biden's budget will ask for increase in military spending. McCarthy promised military spending cuts in his deal to become speaker.

"The budget is unlikely to gain momentum on Capitol Hill as Republicans, who control the House, are expected to oppose most of Mr. Biden’s proposals. [...] House Republicans have said spending cuts will be a condition for raising the debt ceiling, which the U.S. is already bumping up against. Mr. Biden says he won’t negotiate on the subject, calling for a “clean” debt ceiling increase without conditions. The government could become unable to pay its bills as soon as this summer, and failing to raise the debt ceiling could wreak havoc on global markets."

I assume you mean in the US?

@BjornJurgens That's right, I'll update to clarify.

predicted YES

@brwa Just for further language tightening,

  • You probably mean federal?

  • If you're using furloughs, you might want to specify if you're counting the order itself, or the actual furlough day arriving,

  • and whether furloughs of x many specific departments counts...

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