Will the Manifolio add-on have a workaround for the "loan warning" by Sep 1st?
Mini
4
1.0k
resolved Aug 29
Resolved
YES


I currently can't use the app because of a message about being overleveraged and risk of ruin:


Resolves YES if the mentioned workaround of an "overdraft mana" field (or similar), that allows me to circumvent this error, is implemented by Sep 1st.
Resolves NO otherwise.

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predicted NO

@WilliamHoward Still happening on 8/29/23 for me, not sure if I'll need to update the app itself when the change drops (I don't actually know how extension updates are pushed, whether the update process is manual or automatic etc), or if it's just pointing directly to a webserver you can push changes to without updating the app.

predicted YES

@brubsby it's just a wrapper around the website so it will update immediately... but I haven't written the change yet

predicted YES

@WilliamHoward still, interpret my yes bet as a firm commitment

predicted NO

@brubsby it's done now :)

@WilliamHoward thank you! one small question, it uses the overdraftable balance to suggest how much to bet, so if i put, say 10000 in the overdraft field (the minimum required to get it to suggest anything), it suggests i bet more than i currently have in cash on a market.

is this an oversight, and the max bet should still be min(balance, suggestion)? or, is there some analysis that could explain this UX as coherent, like I should borrow that much money to bet on the thing (even though you can't take out loans on demand)

predicted YES

@brubsby Oh dear that is kind of an oversight, bear with and I'll fix it. Although it may still be the case that the behaviour is slightly counterintuitive, in that if you eyeball an overdraft amount it will tend to recommend a bet that is close to your full balance

predicted YES

@WilliamHoward yeah, I did a fermi estimate of my overdraft amount required, but I think it makes sense that the amount of money you are okay with betting increases as your tolerance to overdraft does

predicted YES

@brubsby That bug is fixed now, although having thought it through I think your explanation is actually right:

is there some analysis that could explain this UX as coherent, like I should borrow that much money to bet on the thing (even though you can't take out loans on demand)

...but only if your true utility function happens to include the specific overdraft you have set, and it's this arbitrariness that makes it less neat to use. I'm sure a better workaround exists 🤔

predicted YES

@WilliamHoward like with log wealth utility, i think negative wealth also has negative log utility, if that makes sense.

Will HowardboughtṀ100YES

>:^)