Will I, brubsby, be alive in 2069?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ1093
2069
88%
chance

the sex year

for the purposes of this market, i count as alive if my brain is uploaded, as long as i can psionically control teledildonics in the physical world

it also counts as alive if i'm normal alive too

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

just took a very scammy feeling life expectancy quiz online and it told me 82.3 years old, which is 5-10 years after 2069, fwiw

predicts YES

@brubsby i'll probably do the actual actuarial math for probability i live to 2069 when i have a bit more time, and post here for fun

predicts YES

@brubsby unadjusted life expectancy tables (no lifestyle questions) put this market at 41.6%, but when i took 3 more lifestyle adjusted ones it puts my life expectancy at like 95 years. but i'm unable to find lifestyle adjusted tables that have percent chance of death every year to calculate what this market should be at.

BUT (improper use of statistics warning), if i take the 95 year life expectancy figure and the population wide life expectancy standard deviation and do a little math, this market should be at about 89%, although the std dev of the 95 year life expectancy probably doesn't match, but it doesn't seem easily available for my cohort.

so i'm gonna go with 89% for now

@brubsby Prove me wrong.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules