Will Starship undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines by Feb 14?
resolved Feb 15

Resolves YES if the engines are lit before 11:59:59 Feb 14 EST, according to video or official statements. Resolves NO on Feb. 15, but resolution may be delayed if it is unclear whether a test occurred, or at what time the engines were lit.

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Just to head off disambiguation, I assume this resolves No if they fire 31 now, and then 2 later. I'm assuming the 33 needs to be during the same test.

predicted YES

@Mqrius Correct.

sold Ṁ221 of YES

sold Ṁ129 of YES

@chrisjbillington This still has a chance of resolving Yes if they do another static fire before market end, this time with all 33 engines. They do have several closures still available.

bought Ṁ111 of NO

@Mqrius indeed. I am guessing they will not do another static fire solely to get the count up to 33, but they might do another one for some other reason, and end up firing all 33. I'll still bet against for now.

sold Ṁ40 of NO

@chrisjbillington Yeah, I'm wondering if they'll do another one with a longer duration. SpaceX called this a "full duration" in a tweet, so maybe not. But they'll certainly swap out those two engines, and then presumably they'll want to test the two new ones? It seems a bit low on 20%, but then again there's not much time to do a swap and another test, and they have a limited number of allowed tests in the first place so maybe they'll skip it.

predicted YES

New related market:

bought Ṁ30 of YES
sold Ṁ86 of YES

Seems overcorrected now. This market only resolves Yes if all 33 engines fire successfully. In previous static fires, often not all the engines ignited successfully. I'd be happily surprised if they succeed at getting all 33 to light first try. Though I also expect it will be hard to tell clearly from a video, and official communications might not mention it if only 32 of them got lit.

sold Ṁ22 of NO
sold Ṁ61 of YES

@Mqrius Argh, I just wanted to bet over the attempt. Now I'm likely losing mana because I don't know know what the failure rate of an individual raptor is. Need to be more careful.

sold Ṁ10 of NO

@chrisjbillington It's hard to be sure tbh! Presumably they have improved the raptors steadily over time, and it's been a while since the last static fire. But then 33 engines is a lot that can go wrong. Any high confidence in this area seems wrong to me, I'm not even 90% sure they'll do a static fire at all.

sold Ṁ18 of NO

@chrisjbillington My new market is still pristine unbetted; if you have a well-calibrated opinion, you could get all the early profits! :D

sold Ṁ50 of YES

@Mqrius Thanks! But I suspect 50% is about right and also I have no liquid mana.

sold Ṁ15 of NO

@chrisjbillington Sorry I ate all your liquid mana :')

predicted YES

Well and the bots but they eat everyone's mana

predicted YES

@Mqrius lol thanks. But the blame lies entirely with me, I got greedy.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I did the same thing. I think the title of the market and the resolution criteria could be better aligned. To me, "undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines" just means that each will be tested not that each test will succeed. I should have read the resolution criteria more clearly, but the title could better reflect the criteria.

predicted YES

What about if they attempt to light all 33 engines, but for example 2 of them fail to light? Am I understanding correctly that that would be a no?

predicted YES

@Mqrius You are correct. To steal criteria from the prior market: "If a test is conducted but not all engines fire, this resolves NO."