US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029?
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Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.
'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.
Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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