This derivative market resolves YES if an event that causes the underlying market, listed below, to resolve YES, occurs before Monday April 6th 2026, 11:59pm ET:
The underlying market does not need to actually resolve by the end of Monday for this derivative market. But it does need to resolve YES eventually for this market to resolve YES, and the decisive events must have taken place during Easter, even if resolution was delayed or the price fluctuated.
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https://xcancel.com/JackMurphyRGR/status/2040631669850267662#m
If confirmed, resolves YES imo.
Forward arming refuelling point is almost certainly inside Iran (if it were in Iraq, no need to blow it up in place).
Even if this particular detail is not confirmed the chances that the WSO was recovered without feet on the ground is really really small.
Rumours that the WSO has been recovered...
https://xcancel.com/Fundji3/status/2040575895144980631
https://xcancel.com/JackMurphyRGR/status/2040563822784647473
Pretty sure (90%+) special forces boots were on the ground to rescue the pilot and will be searching for the WSO...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/03/iran-claims-it-downed-us-fighter-jet-and-captured-pilot/