Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if the US invades Iran with ground troops this year.

Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how specific edge cases will resolve:

Pilot accidentally lands in Iran (e.g., bails out and is captured): Does not count — not considered "deployed on land"

Rescue team sent to secure area and extract pilot: Counts — team is intentionally deployed to ground positions

US advisors embedded with Kurdish forces making cross-border incursion: Counts — (depending on whether) the advisors are soldiers. Mercenaries would be considered soldiers, for example, but ambassadors would not be.

Non-active-duty Americans (mercenaries/volunteers) in same scenario: Counts — mercenaries/volunteers still qualify as soldiers

Key definitions used:

Ground troops: soldiers deployed on land rather than in the air or at sea

Invade: (of an armed force) enter a country or region so as to subjugate or occupy it

Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If it is uncertain whether the facts of a scenario meet the resolution criteria (e.g., unclear whether individuals involved are soldiers), resolution will be based on the creator's subjective assessment of the balance of probabilities between YES and NO.

Update 2026-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mercenaries and volunteers only count if they are acting under orders from an official part of the US government. A US citizen independently volunteering to join a rebel force with no government orders or approval would not count.

Update 2026-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market requires official US government orders for ground troops to enter Iran. A US citizen voluntarily joining a foreign rebel or military force without US government orders or approval does not count as "the US putting boots on the ground."

Update 2026-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Credible reporting required: If special operators are confirmed to be conducting ground operations in Iran, this would resolve YES, but only based on credible reporting — the creator will not assume this is happening without such a report.

Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES even if Trump did not have congressional authorization for the invasion. Lack of congressional approval does not disqualify an action from counting as a "US Invasion."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 77% chance (942 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).