🏅 Top traders

2:30am, 7 odd pages, all done. this market was weirdly effective, i have not grinded this hard in a while. thanks all for betting! pray I don't crash on the way home

4/5 subsections done. few soldiers left in the library at this point

fatigue is kicking in but my will is mighty and my beverages caffeinated. anyway check out these graphs

@brod salt is also good for keeping you sharp, that and other elekrolytes, like potassium

@brod calcium will enable you to relax.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen good call, snacking on some salted nuts

@brod those 30 days to expiry calibration graphs are really interesting! do you have any guesses as to why they look like they do?

@zsig yeah I think there’s two things happening, have done statistical tests of both:

1) bias towards 50% from time - if expiry is far away, opportunity cost biases against the more expensive side of the markets

2) ‘yes’ bias, ie prices are uniformly too high

so 1) creates the S-curve shape and 2) pushes it to the right. both effects work on the same direction for price < 50%, and mostly cancel out above price > 50%. means 0-50% outcomes are generally overpriced

@mods can this be unranked pls