Background
SpaceX has announced plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window. This window represents the optimal time for launches between Earth and Mars when the planets are properly aligned, requiring less fuel and time for the journey. Elon Musk has publicly stated this goal as part of SpaceX's broader Mars colonization program.
The Starship is SpaceX's next-generation fully reusable spacecraft designed for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. It consists of the Starship spacecraft (upper stage) and the Super Heavy booster (first stage).
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if:
SpaceX launches at least one Starship spacecraft with Mars as its intended destination before December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.
The launch must be officially confirmed by SpaceX or reliable space agencies/trackers.
This market will resolve as NO if:
No Starship is launched toward Mars by the end of 2026.
A launch is attempted but fails before the spacecraft leaves Earth orbit.
SpaceX officially cancels or postpones its Mars mission plans beyond 2026.
Considerations
Several factors could affect the outcome:
Regulatory approvals from the FAA and other agencies are required for launches.
Technical challenges with Starship development and testing could cause delays.
The Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026 offers a limited timeframe for optimal launches.
Previous Starship test flights have experienced various successes and failures, indicating the technical complexity of the program.
The mission only needs to launch toward Mars to satisfy the resolution criteria; successful landing or mission completion on Mars is not required for a YES resolution.
1,000The 2026 window extends a bit beyond the end of 2026, which makes your description contradict itself, because sometimes you're talking about the 2026 window, and sometimes you're talking about the end of 2026.
Since we care about the window, and not the arbitrary year-end date, you could set the end date of the market to, say, April 2027. By then there definitely won't be any flights to Mars anymore, and the next window is still far off.
@Mqrius from Elon's most recent interview (with Joe Rogan) a more definite window of November 2025 (+/- 1 month) was given. We can definitely look into modifying the date based on the window as others share their comments.
@box The window is wider than that, but it comes at the cost of higher deltaV, so if you can avoid it, you want to go within that 2 month period. But I can imagine a world where they're kinda late with getting everything done, and they just take the deltaV cost anyway. But that would still be "within the 2026 Mars transfer window"
@Mqrius Got it, I'd definitely give it some further thought as you've raised good points and given Elon's "timing" history.