Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Spain, France, or Argentina wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament takes place from June 11 to July 19, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official FIFA World Cup winner announced at the conclusion of the final match. The market resolves NO if any other team wins the tournament.

Background

Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup with approximately 14.9% implied probability, followed by England at 13.2% and Argentina at 12.3%. Spain are the reigning European champions after winning Euro 2024, while Argentina are the defending World Cup champions from 2022. France has won the World Cup twice, in 1998 and 2018.

Considerations

This tournament will be the first to include 48 teams, an expansion from 32. The teams will be split into twelve groups of four teams, with the top two teams in each group and the eight best third-placed teams progressing to a new round of 32. The expanded format increases unpredictability compared to previous tournaments.