The scenario:
You spin a wheel once.
Outcome A: You win $1B (1 BILLION DOLLARS!).
Outcome B: You win $0, and you get stabbed in a non-fatal spot (causing long-term pain for the rest of your life, but you won't die earlier).
The question:
What is the minimum win chance (P%) you would require to spin the wheel? For example, you would definitely spin the wheel at 100%, but you would likely also spin it at 95%.
Market Resolution:
I will ask 5 people for their minimum required P%. This market resolves to the median (middle value) of those 5 values.
1,000@marvingardens give me an example? i will answer any clarifications based on the market information.
@bobalobascrob I mean what does it matter what example I give you? I can't anticipate everything these five people will ask you.
Here's an example: How severe, how long-term? What're you going to do with the example? Answering it doesn't really address the fact that these five people will come up with unanticipated follow-up questions
@marvingardens ah that's a good point. how's this, i won't answer any follow up questions to keep it consistent. all the information they're given is the information in this market.
@Gen my bad, the market description was originally a bit wordy, i rephrased it. you can probably bet now.
@Web3ICP huh, interesting video on rube goldberg machine but how is this relevant ... ?
@bobalobascrob You could make your proposition simpler or use words that make it so. Have a great day!
@bobalobascrob Understood. Now it's just ugly. LOL I prefer to receive 1 Billion and be non-fatally stabbed. 🤣
@Web3ICP and... ?
it's either or (one of the two), but you can choose the probability of getting either (and the question asks for your minimum probability