MANIFOLD
When will Bryan Caplan's graphic novel, Amore Infernale, be released?
3
Ṁ175Ṁ385
2031
September 23, 2027
1.1%
2025
25%
2026
47%
2027
10%
2028
9%
2029
7%
2030, later, or never

Resolution Criteria

Amore Infernale is a graphic novel about three superheroes solving an opera-themed mystery in Verona, Italy in 2005. The market resolves YES when a commercially published version of the complete graphic novel becomes available for purchase through major retailers (Amazon, bookstores, publisher websites, etc.). The resolution date is the official publication/release date announced by the publisher. If the book is only released online or in self-published form without commercial distribution, the market resolves NO.

Background

Caplan wrote and storyboarded the graphic novel sixteen years ago (around 2007). Over the years, he tried to find an artist to draw the book, and in 2020 ran an illustration contest on Freelancer.com, with winner Aljon Dave completing the first of four chapters. Dave subsequently resigned, and Caplan decided not to restart the project with another artist. In July 2023, Caplan launched an AI illustration contest with hopes to publish the finished book commercially, noting that if the contest doesn't work out, he'll figure out another release route.

Considerations

The project has faced significant delays over nearly two decades. Caplan has stated the work contains emotional truth and art for art's sake with no didactic agenda, distinguishing it from his other published graphic novels which focus on economic and policy topics.

  • Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market structure has been changed from a multiple choice market where all options could resolve NO to one where exactly one answer must be chosen. The "2030" option has been changed to "2030, later, or never" to accommodate this requirement.

Market context
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I realized I have to resolve this to one of the answers (they can't all resolve to no). In light of this, I've changed the "2030" option to "2030, later, or never"). If any of the holders at the time I made this change would rather it be handled differently, let me know.

If the 3 of us can't agree on a change, I can N/A the question.

it's amore … 🎵

bought Ṁ5 NO

Someone must make him understand that cartooning is seriously business.

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