Help me understand how to best spend my mana.
I’m trying to understand a fundamental tension I see with Manifold: should I spend my mana on answering interesting/important questions in markets that may not resolve for years? Or should I try to answer more prescient, but less important, questions?
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Also, while I wait for an answer on resolution, let me leave my opinion here.
Decade-long questions aren't very useful.
Even the very best superforecasters have low accuracy on them. Of course they'll update as time goes on, but they won't really predict "black swan" changes.
If you care about "big questions" the best way to go about them is to decompose them into questions that can be answered in a shorter timespan.
So if you care about AI doom, think about the pathways to good and bad outcomes and what would be required for each of them to happen.
Answering the 'big questions' is just averaging over lots of these paths.