Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

It appears possible or likely that the OTHER arxiv pre-print "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (the 3 author one - https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was uploaded without certain authors' permissions, and may be retracted for non-technical reasons.

This market refers to the 6-author pre-print, "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) uploaded on the same day.

This market resolves positively if the pre-print is retracted from arxiv for any reason by 11:59pm on December 31st, 2023.

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bought Ṁ60 of NO

Retractions are rare, even when scientists are wrong.

staying out of this because I'm not sure, but I'll note that as of right now it looks like the 6-author version was published in response to the three author version, to document the full group of authors. It seems entirely possible that if the 3-author version is removed from arxiv that the 6-author one will be voluntarily retracted, as their work will not longer be misattributed.

predicted NO

@Adam arxiv doesn't have a mechanism for voluntary retraction afaik

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