Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?
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46
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

It appears possible or likely that the OTHER arxiv pre-print "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (the 3 author one - https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was uploaded without certain authors' permissions, and may be retracted for non-technical reasons.

This market refers to the 6-author pre-print, "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) uploaded on the same day.

This market resolves positively if the pre-print is retracted from arxiv for any reason by 11:59pm on December 31st, 2023.

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Retractions are rare, even when scientists are wrong.

staying out of this because I'm not sure, but I'll note that as of right now it looks like the 6-author version was published in response to the three author version, to document the full group of authors. It seems entirely possible that if the 3-author version is removed from arxiv that the 6-author one will be voluntarily retracted, as their work will not longer be misattributed.

predicted NO

@Adam arxiv doesn't have a mechanism for voluntary retraction afaik